No Kane, No Lukaku, No Problems? 12-Week Update

In a season preview piece for fantasyyirma.com, I challenged the orthodoxy that at least one of Kane and Lukaku – preferably both - was a must-have in any fantasy team. The savings that could be invested elsewhere, I argued, were such that the lost points on the two big-name strikers could be recouped from other players in other positions. Despite being asked by literally nobody to persist with this experiment, my stubbornness dictated that I would be going as much of the season as I could bear without purchasing either of these two elite forwards; twelve gameweeks in, with my early wildcard a distant memory, Kane and Lukaku remain conspicuous only by their absence.

How has this strategy been holding up? Somewhat inevitably, it has led to frankly ridiculous swings in ranking from week to week. The success in any given gameweek is dictated just as much by Kane and Lukaku as it is by the eleven I have selected; a blank by one or both of them sends me shooting up the rankings, but the pair of them hitting their stride simultaneously spells disaster. This is evidenced by the mammoth discrepancies in my monthly positions. August saw Kane’s obligatory barren spell – combined with some prolific scoring from my alternative investments, notably the Liverpool trio of Mane, Salah and Firmino, this fired me up to 16,118^th for the month. At this point, I may or may not have been guilty of some fairly smug tweets. September punished me cruelly for this; it got off to an inauspicious start when I handed the armband to Mane only for him to get sent off, and it didn’t get much better from there. Kane and Lukaku ascended to the top of the race for the golden boot, Liverpool stalled badly, and Wenger went through a phase of inexplicable reluctance to give Lacazette consistent minutes: this utterly derailed my progress, resulting in a final monthly ranking of 4,678,952^nd. I didn’t know there were that many FPL players. October was slightly less disastrous, although still far from successful. Salah’s consistent returns and a couple of good Jesus captaincies only sometimes sufficed to keep pace with the duo I was now firmly committed not to employ; a monthly finish around the 2.8 million mark was technically progress, but hardly a ringing endorsement of my strategy.

Naturally, I headed into November an extremely disheartened manager. Flashbacks to my first proper season of the game, where I stubbornly refused to accept that Yaya Toure would continue to score so well, haunted my every waking moment; history was repeating itself on an even more gratuitously self-destructive scale, and I was already drafting an optimistic claim against Fantasy YIRMA for lost mini-league earnings. However, so far, it has been a kind month – the pendulum has swung firmly back in my favour, as Kane has stalled badly and my alternatives have finally stepped up in a way that had been disappointingly lacking since August. I sit inside the top 320k for the month, an effort that has sufficed to finally drag me back inside the overall top million. De Bruyne and Jesus deserve honourable mentions, but it is Mohamed Salah that takes the bulk of the credit; without Kane and Lukaku to tempt me I have captained him in every game this month, and he has rewarded me without fail.

This gives some idea of the volatility of a team without Kane or Lukaku. Certainly I have seen enough to substantiate a claim that shunning the pair of them is a defensible option; it magnifies the rewards when those picked as their differential alternatives deliver, leading to huge jumps up the leaderboards. However, for it to pan out as the best strategy across the course of the season, the alternative picks have to be consistently on the money. Kane and Lukaku will inevitably score in most weeks – this is why conventional wisdom dictates they are necessities – and when this coincides with quieter games from other premium options it can lead to staggeringly poor gameweeks. If they fall back-to-back, it can be crippling. The likelihood of this is increased by the lack of nailed-on starting strikers in other top teams; Jesus and Lacazette have both been left out one too many times to please somebody on my strategy. Firmino has been a regular for Liverpool – ultimately his lower price has been reflected in his returns, however, and his steady numbers are far from ideal when he is used as a Kane or Lukaku replacement. The natural alternative is Morata; he picked up an injury at a time where I really needed him to deliver, but this was bad luck as much as anything else and he probably represents one of the better attacking options from here on in.

The issues with the bold strategy are exacerbated by the emergence of relatively consistent scorers from the budget category, such as Watford’s exciting talent Richarlison. It is a price bracket that Kane and Lukaku owners inevitably have to turn to at some point; when there are options there that post numbers in keeping with the premium midfielders who are taking up my saved money, it poses a serious problem. Over the course of the full campaign, it seems likely that De Bruyne, Mane and others in a similar bracket will pull firmly away – they will need to do so by a substantial margin, however, if the pouring of the Kane-and-Lukaku savings into my midfield is going to pay off. The only upshot of the emergence of such options from the perspective of my strategy is that I too can avail myself of these players, and consequently take a punt on one of the aforementioned expensive strikers with question marks over game time. It is less of a tragedy when Jesus only gets twenty minutes if I know that the entirety of the rest of my team, as opposed to just the premium options, are capable of picking up the slack; nonetheless, on the whole, the success of a number of budget midfielders makes the strategy harder to execute.  

In summary, life without Kane and Lukaku is utter chaos. It does not lend itself to consistency, nor to middle-of-the-road gameweeks: things either go excellently or terribly, and the way it swings is just as dependent on those who have not been selected as it is on those who have been chosen. There is promise in the strategy, and a better manager than me could have deployed it to greater effect by doing a more successful job of consistently selecting the high-scoring alternative premium investments, but it is nevertheless undeniable that failing to pick Kane and Lukaku is bound to lead to something of an uphill battle at times. It is a battle I enjoy, however, and you can be sure that I will blindly plough on with it regardless of how many more times I plumb new rankings depths. 

Alvaro Arbeloa: The Journey Back to the Bernabeu

"Madrid is the club of my life, I will never call to ask for a job, but I am always available to offer myself”. These were the parting words of Alvaro Arbeloa as he announced that he was hanging up his boots, following an ultimately disappointing final season in the game with West Ham United. It was fitting that he should pledge fealty to Los Blancos even as he left his playing career behind him; the Spanish giants shaped the whole direction of his career, and it was with them that he won all that could be won.

Arbeloa’s first steps on his footballing journey were taken to the north-east of the capital, in the city of Zaragoza. His family moved there when he was four years old – he joined the academy as a thirteen-year-old, and stayed there for the majority of his teenage years. The crowning moment of his time there came in his final season: he helped the team to a 1-0 victory over Barcelona in the Copa del Rey Juvenil. At the time, the likes of Andres Iniesta and Victor Valdes featured for the Catalan club’s youth outfit; victory was a great achievement, and it was in no small part down to Arbeloa’s endeavour. A local match report from the time described the “enormous physical exertion” expended by the back line in order to preserve the clean sheet – this scrappiness and determination, by no means a given in those brought up in the Spanish culture where technique is everything, has been one of Arbeloa’s great strengths throughout his career. His performance helped to turn the heads of Barcelona’s great rivals.

In 2001, he made the move into Real Madrid’s youth ranks. By this point he was nearing eighteen, and was duly shifted up into the Real Madrid C team shortly after arriving. Again, his stay was not a long one; he impressed over the course of his 16 appearances in the 2002/03 season, and moved up for the second time in quick succession to join Real Madrid Castilla. It would prove harder to earn promotion to the senior side. From 2003 to 2006, Arbeloa racked up 84 appearances for the B team – for most of this period the first team remained a distant dream. This was no criticism of the full-back’s ability: the main squad was simply saturated with world class players, and Arbeloa’s talents would have had to be positively mercurial in order for him to displace club stalwart Michel Salgado.

Arbeloa was eventually handed a small taste of first team action, coming on as a substitute in a draw against Real Betis in the 2004/05 season. By the start of the 2006/07 season, however, it was apparent to both player and club that Arbeloa’s opportunities would be highly restricted if he stayed in the capital. The emergence of Sergio Ramos, who had succeeded where Arbeloa failed in taking the place of Salgado, meant competition was more fierce than ever: a move to Deportivo La Coruna was arranged. The player was clearly uncomfortable leaving the club he had grown to love over the course of his five years there, describing it as “a strange situation” but acknowledging that “something had to give” as a result of the number of defenders in the squad. At his new club, Arbeloa was finally given his chance – he played twenty-one games in the first half of the season, and instantly began to attract attention.

Indeed, his spell with Deportivo would prove to be a very short one. On the January deadline day, Liverpool moved for Arbeloa. Fellow Spaniard Rafa Benitez wanted to bolster his options: by this point Steve Finnan was 30, and Arbeloa was touted in some quarters as his replacement. However, it was at left-back where Arbeloa was handed his full debut, against none other than Real Madrid’s fiercest rivals. This time around, he had even more to deal with than Iniesta and Valdes: a certain 19-year-old Argentinian forward had burst on to the scene, and Arbeloa was tasked with dealing with him. The thinking was that the full-back’s discipline, combined with his strong right side, would help to nullify Messi’s magical left foot – to the extent that anyone is ever able to keep Messi quiet, it worked very well. The team won 2-1 on the night, and were able to limit Barcelona to one goal in the second leg at Anfield: they progressed on away goals.

This certainly helped to endear him to the Liverpool fans, and indeed to the manager – he remained a utility option across the back four for the remainder of the season, and only featured as a late substitute in the Champions League final defeat to AC Milan, but by the following campaign he was established as a first-team full-back. He made more league appearances than both Finnan and Riise, and impressed in a fairly understated manner. He was never one to maraud forward, and his lovely curling strike against Reading in early 2007 ended up being one of just two goals he scored for the club, but he was defensively dependable and showed admirable grit and determination. He played his part in limiting Liverpool’s goals conceded to just 28 and 27 in 2007/08 and 2008/09 respectively – in the latter, the team went very close to winning the league title. This did not prevent a very public falling-out with Jamie Carragher in a match against West Bromwich Albion: the centre-back took issue with Arbeloa’s handling of a defensive situation, but the Spaniard gave as good as he got and the two had to be separated by teammates. It was somewhat farcical, but ultimately it was fuelled by two players determined to make sure that the team succeeded – there aren’t many that would stand their ground in the face of a Carragher tirade, and Arbeloa’s passion is part of what makes him a popular figure amongst the Anfield faithful to this day.

At the end of this campaign, having made 98 appearances for Liverpool, Arbeloa left the club. Glen Johnson had been brought in, sparking speculation about the Spaniard’s future, and he was duly given permission to re-join Real Madrid. This was a special moment for Arbeloa, who three years earlier had been considered surplus to requirements. He spoke of his pride, saying “when you leave the club with the feeling of not being able to be in the first team, you know that it's very difficult to return, so for me, when this opportunity presented itself, my first objective was to take it and fortunately I'm here." It was indeed fortunate, both for the player and the club: Arbeloa immediately became a regular, albeit once again on the left side of defence for a lot of the time. It was a disappointing season for the team – Real were pipped to the title by Barcelona, and exited both the Champions League and Copa del Rey at the round of 16 stage – but on a personal level Arbeloa was impressive. His form cemented his place in Spain’s squad at the 2010 World Cup.  As he had done at club level so many years earlier, Sergio Ramos frustrated his chances of regular minutes; just like at the Euros two years before, Arbeloa was limited to one appearance in the group stages. Nonetheless, by the end of the tournament the full-back had both a European Cup and World Cup to his name: to even make the twenty-three-man squad in Spain’s golden era was a massive achievement, and he deserves recognition for it.

The trophy rush carried over into Arbeloa’s club career. The 2010/11 season saw victory in the Copa del Ray, although the league title narrowly eluded them once again. It was also the campaign where Arbeloa finally got what he had been striving for since turning professional: regular minutes at right-back for Real Madrid. Sergio Ramos made the transition into the middle, allowing Arbeloa to slot into his natural position. This setup became firmly established, and endured into the 2011/12 season. This time, finally, the team overcame Barcelona to win the league: yet another personal triumph over the Catalans meant Arbeloa could add La Liga to his rapidly-growing list of honours. He was rewarded with a new long-term contract at the end of the season.

However, his time as a regular was coming to an end. The re-signature of Dani Carvajal meant that Arbeloa was once again locked out of the first team, but he resisted calls from the media for his departure. He was at the club he loved, and wanted to stay and help in any way he could. The fans, who like the Liverpool faithful before them had warmed to Arbeloa’s spirit and fight as well as his ability, were more than happy to get behind him in a bit-part role. It was in this capacity that he finally won the Champions League in 2014, watching from the bench as his team went one better than he was able to do with Liverpool seven years previously. This was yet another addition to a remarkable personal trophy haul - no Real Madrid fan would begrudge their loyal servant the medals, even if the part he played in getting them was limited.

He remained at the club for a further two years, bringing him up to a total of 233 appearances in his second spell. Of those, just nine came in the 2015/16 season: two of these were in the Champions League, which Real won for the second time in three years, but Arbeloa nonetheless felt that it was time to move on at the end of the campaign. In hindsight, he should have called it a day at this point – his move to West Ham United was ultimately ill-fated, and he retired at the end of the season having made just four appearances. He spoke of his disappointment, saying “it has not been an easy year” – when he looks back on his career as a whole, however, there will surely be nothing but satisfaction. He may have taken a long road to the Real Madrid first team, but the trophies to his name are tangible proof that it was well worth the wait.

Follow me on Twitter @JamesMartin013

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Liverpool 3-0 Huddersfield: Post-Match Thoughts

“There’s still time for this one to break down, we’re not there yet”. As we reached Marylebone, where we finally found a train heading back to where we needed to go following a missed connection, a journey into London, a closed tube line and a hastily-located bus, optimism was thin on the ground. Hours earlier, similar creeping doubts pervaded those around us in the Upper Main Stand as Liverpool sat on a slender 1-0 lead, having already missed a penalty. But, much like the last train to Oxford, the team came good: questions had been asked, but in the end the answer was emphatic.

A late change in the line-up saw Dejan Lovren replaced by Ragnar Klavan. This gave cause for some concern in the opening fifteen minutes – the Estonian was repeatedly targeted, and lost multiple duels to Depoitre. It was only the lack of ambition from Huddersfield that prevented this from developing into a more serious problem; there were rarely any runners looking to meet these flick-ons, and Liverpool were allowed to clear up without too much difficulty. The assuredness with which these situations were dealt with is also attributable in part to the interesting role played by Joe Gomez. He was ostensibly at right-back, but regularly drifted inside to essentially function as a third centre-back: Matip could consequently play closer to Klavan, and sweep up some of his missed clearances. This system worked well, and Gomez excelled in it; his confidence and poise was one of the few positives in a generally lacklustre first half, and in truth a convincing case could be made for naming him Man of the Match. Going forward, it was only Salah that looked even vaguely likely to make something happen; in a harsh irony, it was he who missed the penalty late in the half that would have made Liverpool much more comfortable going into the break. Daniel Sturridge failed to make any kind of mark on the half – he spent most of the time as neither one thing nor the other, failing to make darting runs in behind but not coming short to receive passes much either.

Thankfully, there was a big reaction after the break. All too often this season this kind of response has been lacking, but Liverpool got straight to the task at hand in the second period and grabbed a crucial early goal. Sure enough, it was the up-to-now anonymous Sturridge; he showed exactly why he still has a role to play, slotting home with unerring coolness after the ball broke to him fortuitously. Huddersfield’s stubborn resolve was broken, and Klopp’s men did well to keep applying the pressure. There had been no goal threat to speak of at all from the away side, but everyone was aware that one moment of madness in that back line could mean more points dropped – it was imperative to stay on the front foot. Henderson must take some credit for ensuring this happened: he pressed relentlessly to ensure Huddersfield never had the time to work anything. It was also the captain that produced a glorious ball into Firmino, who really should have picked out Sturridge in the middle with his pull-back. Far from dwelling on his error, though, he immediately netted the vital second goal from the resultant corner. He connected sweetly with the ball, using his head to guide it beyond Lossl. Joel Matip could do with taking tips off him: the centre-back was guilty of missing two guilt-edged headed opportunities.

At 2-0, arguably the most pleasing passage of the game ensued. The tempo was taken down a notch, and Liverpool asserted near-complete control: this has been rare indeed in recent times. That is not to say that attacking intent was extinguished completely, but the midfield began waiting for gaps as opposed to trying to force them. Unbelievably, Jordan Henderson has been taking criticism for this – he played a few balls sideways and backwards when a forward pass would have been a needless risk, and this apparently opens him up for abuse. There are often legitimate criticisms to be made of the captain, but he was an important part of the win on this occasion. It was one of his midfield partners, however, that added the clinching third goal: Wijnaldum’s first of this campaign bore a striking resemblance to his last of the previous season, as he curled it in powerfully at the near post despite seemingly lacking the angle to do so. It was nowhere near as crucial as his goal against Middlesbrough, but it could be important on a personal note – he has had a shaky start, and a goal could do him the world of good.

Solanke and Oxlade-Chamberlain were brought on in the latter stages of the game, and both impressed. They linked up nicely, and not just in the obvious ‘run down the byline, cross for the target man’ way; there was some of that, but there was also a nice interchange on the edge of the box that should really have resulted in Solanke adding a fourth. The other substitute, Can, was also very solid – it was great to have such accomplished options off the bench. He kept up the intensity with some good pressing, and added a further controlling presence in the middle of the park. This contributed to a very pleasing clean sheet, and a satisfying afternoon all round.

Liverpool now have a great opportunity to notch up back-to-back wins in response to the shambles at Spurs; Maribor in midweek offers an excellent chance to get some momentum going with another victory. Another performance such as this one will surely see Klopp’s men take a big stride towards qualification from the Champions League group stage – let’s hope the players got home quicker than I did and were able to get some rest!

- Follow me on Twitter @JamesMartin013

Liverpool 0-0 Manchester United: Tactical Analysis

A familiar fault reared its head as Liverpool once again failed to capitalise on their opportunities and consequently squandered the chance to win. Nonetheless, there was plenty to be pleased with in the performance: Mourinho’s typically deep line was unable to prevent the creation of a couple of big opportunities, and United’s erstwhile prolific attack never really looked like troubling the hosts’ back line. These plus points are both endemic of a change of tactical approach that has the potential to make Liverpool unstoppable.

The new tactic is in many ways a subtle change, but it could serve to dramatically improve results. Out of possession, things are much the same: Klopp has his players pressing high, looking to hustle the opposition into a mistake. This was very effective against United, who were forced to simply put the ball out of play on multiple occasions. The change has come in the approach when Liverpool do have the ball. Previously, attacks have been as frenetic as the turnovers in possession through which they were instigated; in other words, the plan was to nick the ball and then descend upon the goal as quickly and directly as possible. This worked to destructive effect against teams who left gaps to be exploited at the point of turnover, but opponents were increasingly opting to sit very deep against Liverpool so as to negate this risk. In response to this, Klopp has got his team playing much more patiently in the build-up phase. The only way to consistently break low blocks is intricate passing sequences – recently, these have become a much more regular feature. The idea is that teams can no longer feel safe sitting back: if they do so, the likes of Coutinho and Firmino will find a way through with their playmaking talents. This is good in and of itself, but what gives it the potential to be so effective is the fact that the attack still possesses the capability to launch explosive counter-attacks. Teams will be in trouble when they step up and in trouble when they sit deep – once the players are fully adjusted to the new method, there will be no simple way of stopping them.

In some ways, it is strange that this tweak to the system hasn’t come sooner: patient passing when in possession and aggressive pressing off-the-ball are a natural mix. When the opponent is only rarely afforded the ball, their natural tendency is to take more risks when they get it – they wish to capitalise on the fact they are actually in possession by turning that possession into a scoring chance. This risk-taking leaves them more vulnerable to the press: this allows a gap to be exploited at the turnover if it exists, and if it does not then the side playing the possession-based game nonetheless have the ball back. Thus the system serves as a potential way of creating chances, but also as a way of limiting chances for the opponent: given Liverpool’s defensive woes of late, any help they can derive from their tactical setup is welcome. To put it simply, the opposition cannot score if they don’t have the ball – the principle is basic, but the ramifications are significant. All the while Liverpool are moving the ball around, looking for an opening, they are simultaneously relieving the defence of all pressure; they may be called upon as ball-players, but this is one aspect of the game in which Matip and Lovren are fairly accomplished. As such, the new system being employed is working towards improving things at both ends of the pitch.

Why, then, did Liverpool still fail to pick up a win against United? There are two principle reasons. The first is that the adaptation to the new style is a work in progress: the team cannot be expected to transform into Guardiola’s Barcelona overnight, and the incision and fluidity of the passing therefore still left something to be desired at times. After a full season of being stumped by the deep line, it would be unrealistic to demand that the players immediately work out how to consistently unlock it. The second reason is that, even when the chances were cleverly carved out, they were not taken. Emre Can and Joel Matip missed the biggest opportunities of the match, with Mo Salah also failing to turn home from close range. This has been a big problem of late, and can also in part be attributed to Klopp’s tweak of the system. Under the old methods, nearly all of the chances created were 2v1s (or similar) by virtue of the way in which they came about: everyone charged forwards off the back of the press, overwhelming defences and creating easy scoring situations where the ball could just be passed home. Now, whilst some of the chances being made are still clear-cut, the goalkeeper cannot be taken out of the equation completely: faced with beating him, the players are struggling. Admittedly David De Gea is something of an exceptional case – he is one of the best keepers in the world, and his stop to deny Matip was extraordinary. Nonetheless, the problem applies more generally: Liverpool have to get better at burying their chances if they wish to reap the full rewards that the change in style has to offer.

All in all, though, the draw was more encouraging than it was frustrating. There are clear signs that Klopp’s amended tactical vision is starting to be understood and implemented, and when this comes to full fruition it will be fantastic.

-   - Follow me on Twitter @JamesMartin013

Time to Give Gomez a Go at Centre-Back?

Ask Joe Gomez what position he plays, and he will tell you that he is a centre-back. That is not to say he is ineffectual in other positions – his versatility, along with his immense potential, was a big part of what prompted Liverpool to snap him up from Charlton in the summer of 2015. Indeed, he has impressed in both full-back positions during his time at Anfield; the athleticism he has shown at right-back in his most recent outings is all the more laudable given the ACL injury that kept him out for a year. However, with the club in something of a crisis in the centre of defence, maybe the time has come to give Gomez an extended run in his preferred position.

In terms of physical attributes, Gomez has all the prerequisites of a good central defender. Contrary to what Michael Owen would have you believe, he is fairly tall – he stands at 6”2, plenty big enough to make him competitive in aerial battles against powerful strikers. His strength would further assist him in such situations: Klopp said in pre-season that if anything the young defender had been guilty of bulking up too much. His pace, too, is a big advantage. Only Mane and Moreno have clocked faster sprint speeds so far this season, which is frankly unbelievable considering the permanent impact cruciate injuries often have on quickness. The manager’s system means that defenders will always face being exposed to a certain extent, so this ability to rapidly fill gaps and make recoveries is paramount.

Gomez also possesses the mental qualities required of a good centre-back; the only real criticism of his stints at right-back so far this campaign is a tendency to be a little cautious, but such positional discipline would serve him well in the middle of the back line. There are potentially question marks over other sorts of discipline – Gomez was needlessly dismissed in the tail end of the Sevilla game, and also gave away a stupid free kick in his brief cameo in the season opener against Watford – but such fouls are more commonly committed when a player is functioning out of his natural position. If he were to be deployed centrally, it may be that Gomez would be less prone to these kinds of ill-advised challenges. This is conjecture, of course, but the whole proposition is to experiment with Gomez at centre-back: it might not work out, but with the current alternatives it is surely worth a proper try.

His capacity to take on the role is further exemplified by his experience. His senior debut at Charlton came as a right-back, but the twenty-three subsequent appearances he made for them in all competitions were split fairly evenly between centre-back and full-back. At no point did he look out of his depth: the Championship is obviously a step down from the top level, but it is nevertheless an encouraging sign that he looked so accomplished there in a central position. This is particularly true given that these performances were now more than two years ago; Gomez has progressed since then in spite of the injury. He has also recently been made the captain of the England u21s team, where more often than not he plays as a centre-back. This is perhaps the most telling suggestion that he might be a good addition to the heart of the Liverpool defence. The fact that Aidy Boothroyd would entrust him with the captain’s armband is evidence of his leadership qualities: these are sorely lacking in the current centre-back options. A recent game saw Klavan fail to give any kind of call to Emre Can, who consequently headed the ball out for a needless corner – giving Gomez a go in his natural position might reduce the frequency of these frustrating incidents. 

However, this is all fairly moot if Klopp is unwilling to try Gomez in a central position in the Premier League. On the face of it, this would appear to be the case – he has regularly talked of his satisfaction with the current centre-back options, much to the annoyance of many fans. That said, it would be foolish to read too much into these comments; the fact remains that Lovren has been dropped twice in quick succession in the league. Admittedly one of these was supposedly down to a minor injury, although Lovren was still named on the bench – either way, one would assume that Klopp is perfectly capable of seeing the side’s defensive deficiencies. The natural next step is to look for remedies: Van Dijk was the well-publicised target in the summer, but following the failure of that deal Klopp will have to look closer to home. He could have the perfect solution in the shape of Gomez – few players offer the blend of relevant experience, suitable natural attributes and potential for vast growth that he does. His outing at centre-back in the Carabao Cup tie against Leicester gives reason for optimism that the manager may look to make the transition.

It remains to be seen whether Klopp will eventually end up viewing Gomez as a centre-back. Clyne’s continued absence means that ear-marking the youngster as a right-back option does make some sense at least for the time-being, although the rapid rise of Trent Alexander-Arnold means that he could still be given a game in the middle without leaving a gaping hole down the right.

At any rate, it would certainly seem a waste not to try Gomez as a centre-back at some point: he is still only twenty years old, and has plenty of time to live up to the Ferdinand comparisons made during his breakthrough season at Charlton.

Spartak Moscow 1-1 Liverpool: When is Bad Luck Not Bad Luck?

As the final whistle blew following Liverpool’s draw in Moscow, statistics were already being trotted out to bemoan the team’s bad luck. Total shots taken, total shots faced and the respective ‘expected goals’ of the two sides were amongst the favourites. There is nothing wrong with these stats, but they are being grossly misinterpreted: the repeated disparity between chances created and the final score-line points to problems at the club, not just misfortune.

The simple shot count is not hard to explain. Liverpool have taken 121 shots from their last six games, but have won just one and scored only 6: the obvious conclusion is that the team are shooting from bad areas and being wasteful from good areas. The shots from tough positions are somewhat enforced by opponents regularly opting to employ a deep line against Liverpool – when faced with disciplined banks of defenders, the temptation is strong to try and bypass them by simply striking the ball from distance. Indeed, sometimes this produces results; Coutinho is yet to really find his range since returning to the team, but has nonetheless already produced a lovely free-kick from some way out. However, the manager should be looking to encourage the team to focus more on build-up. It requires more patience, but the side are capable of working the golden opportunities – the equaliser against Spartak was an example of such craft, with Mane and Coutinho linking up intricately to put the Brazilian clean through.

The more troubling problem is the regularity with which these kinds of chances are being squandered. The reintegration of a dedicated playmaker in the shape of Coutinho, combined no doubt with instructions from Klopp to try and carve out better chances, has led to the creation of more opportunities that can be described as ‘clear-cut’ - more often than not, however, they simply aren’t going in. Following the Sevilla game, I referred to these underlying statistics as promising: as a general rule, high expected goals and low actual goals is the sign of an outlier rather than a trend. In fact, entire ‘luck models’ have been constructed with expected goals vs actual goals at the core.  However, it has now happened far too often for Liverpool to chalk the disparity down to misfortune: the root of the issue is serial profligacy. This applies to both the final ball and the finishing. It was evident once again in Moscow – Firmino botched a square ball that would have resulted in a tap-in, Sturridge volleyed over the top from close range and Salah wasted a promising situation by needlessly hitting the ball first time. The personnel seemingly lack the composure to pick and execute the right option in the key areas. If enough chances are created then some will eventually find their way in, but this can only paper over the cracks for so long: Liverpool need to find a way of becoming more clinical if they wish to harness the significant potential that their world class build-up play creates.

It is not all doom and gloom, however. Much as the repeated failure to take good chances is frustrating, their consistent creation is nonetheless an improvement on last season. In that campaign, a deep line essentially ended our chances of scoring unless Coutinho could conjure something up from range: once teams figured this out, the season stuttered badly and Klopp’s men only just secured fourth. Now, we are regularly finding ways through – the players simply aren’t used to it yet! Perhaps the shock of finding themselves in the clear after months of feeding off scraps is partly to blame for the wastefulness fans have had to witness of late; whatever the cause of the problem, it is easier to overcome than the hurdle of the low block that the team has already cleared. It is hard to immediately appreciate it after yet another draw in a game we should have won, but this team really isn’t far away from being something special.

It is also worth noting that Liverpool have been victims of some genuine bad luck. Mane’s infamous red card has been discussed at length – to avoid the risk of this article turning into a rant about that, suffice it to simply say that the rules clearly dictate that a yellow card should have been awarded. The referee also did Liverpool no favours against Spartak: none of their time-wasting antics were punished, and the added time fell well short of the amount actually wasted by the Russians. There was also a fairly convincing penalty shout for Mohamed Salah which was turned down by the officials. When it isn’t bad luck per se, it’s fine margins: Firmino struck the post from his spot kick against Sevilla, for example. These read a little bit like excuses, and as already highlighted there are things that Liverpool do need to work on, but it’s certainly true that things haven’t really gone our way of late.

The reasonable conclusion, therefore, is that things will probably pick up but the team will have to work to make it happen. They cannot spend too long licking their wounds: it’s time to head to Melwood and get some finishing drills going!

Jerzy Dudek: The Big Pole in Our Goal

Jerzy Dudek will forever be a legend on Merseyside. His heroics in Istanbul have gone down in footballing folklore, and that crazy night is rightly remembered as the zenith of his long career. However, his footballing journey is full of achievements that do not deserve to be forgotten – from setting records in the Polish third division to receiving a guard of honour from his Real Madrid teammates, and much else in between.  

Dudek came from humble beginnings. His father and grandfather were both miners: the goalkeeper’s semi-professional contract with third division side Concordia Knuró, along with the pleas of his mother, were the only things that kept him from following them into the pits. He signed the deal at 18, having played for a local youth side from the age of twelve – his first step on the footballing ladder included groundsman duties, so there was little risk of the teenage Dudek getting ahead of himself. He quietly impressed on the pitch that he helped to maintain: during his time there, he set a league record of 416 consecutive minutes without conceding.

However, it was not until four years after joining that Dudek successfully caught the eye of a bigger club. Sokół Tychy were hardly a household name – in fact, they had only been founded two years before Dudek was born – but following a merger with Sokół Pniewy the team began the season in the Polish top flight. It was destined to be a short spell for Dudek, and indeed for Tychy, in the Ekstrakalaka. The goalkeeper only played about half of the games on the way to a mid-table finish, but did enough in those matches to catch the eye of a club with much more pedigree: Feyenoord. Tychy, meanwhile, were forced to disband a season later following financial difficulties.  They have since reformed, and play under the name GKS Tychy in the Polish second tier.

As the club Dudek left behind started to unravel, his personal stock continued to rise rapidly. He settled in quickly with the Dutch giants; he did not make an appearance in his first season, but impressed enough as an understudy to be trusted as first choice for the next campaign following the departure of Ed De Goey to Chelsea. He did not disappoint: Feyenoord could only manage fourth in the table in 1997/98, but Dudek was instrumental in securing the second-best defensive record in the division. Only Ajax, who were blessed with Edwin Van Der Sar between the sticks, conceded fewer. In the Champions League, Dudek was unable to help Feyenoord out of a very tricky group featuring Manchester United and Juventus. However, managing a clean sheet in a home win over the Old Lady – who boasted Del Piero and Zidane amongst their forwards – was surely a season highlight for the 24-year-old.

Dudek went one better domestically in the following campaign. He was once again an ever-present, and conceded the fewest goals in the league on the way to an Eredivisie title for Feyenoord. A certain Ruud Van Nistelrooy rightly took the plau

dits, scoring an impressive 31 league goals, but Dudek’s consistent reliability at the other end was equally important in the domination that led to an eventual 15-point margin of victory. This league title, which turned out to be the last for Feyenoord until 2017, meant that Dudek got a second chance to test his talents in the Champions League in the following season. Two clean sheets against Marseille and another against Lazio were not enough to see his team progress beyond the second group stage – nonetheless, it seemed like only a matter of time before a European giant picked up on Dudek’s string of excellent showings.

In fact, it was not until the end of the following season that the Polish stopper got his big move. He impressed greatly once again in 2000/2001, and became the first ever foreign player to win the Dutch Golden Shoe award. Meanwhile, Liverpool manager Gerard Houllier was losing patience with Sander Westerveld, despite the keeper playing his part on the way to a cup treble for the club. Consequently, Chris Kirkland and Jerzy Dudek were both brought to Anfield in a sensational double move. Westerveld was immediately and ruthlessly taken out of contention for selection by the manager, who moved the keeper on in December at the first opportunity. Dudek, despite being the cheaper of the two new signings, was instigated as first choice straight away.

If some fans had been left feeling a little sorry for Westerveld, they soon forgot about it. Just as he had done so often at Feyenoord, Dudek played a key role in leading his side to finish with the best defensive record in the league: Liverpool conceded just 30 across the course of the season, keeping twelve clean sheets along the way. It was not enough for the title – Liverpool finished runners-up to Arsenal - but Dudek received the personal accolade of being nominated for the UEFA Goalkeeper of the Year award alongside Oliver Kahn and Gianluigi Buffon. This was a truly remarkable achievement for a man who just seven years earlier had been plying his trade in the Polish third division.

His second season was not quite as impressive: he remained first-choice, but a string of errors led to Chris Kirkland being afforded a little more game time. Dudek’s downturn in form contributed to a horrible slump for the team – pre-season title aspirations quickly vanished, and the team also crashed out of the Champions League in the group stages. A late surge in the league was not enough to fire Liverpool back into the top four. This was mitigated somewhat, however, by victory in the League Cup: Dudek was named Man of the Match in the final against Manchester United.

This helped the Pole hold on to his position as first choice going into the next campaign. Arsenal took all of the headlines in their famous ‘invincibles’ season, as Liverpool put in a solid but uninspired shift to secure fourth place. Dudek improved upon his form of the last campaign, but nonetheless ended the season with the worst defensive record of the top four. The main thing, however, was the securing of the Champions League place – this allowed Dudek and Liverpool to reflect on a reasonably successful season.

How important this qualification turned out to be. Dudek had seemingly lost his edge over the past couple of seasons, but the 2004/05 Champions League campaign became the one for which he would be most remembered. New manager Rafael Benitez opted to keep Dudek as the number one, and this paid dividends almost immediately. His clean sheet in the away leg of the playoff round ended up being crucial, as Liverpool limped to a 2-1 aggregate victory over Grazer AK to secure their place in the competition proper. He proceeded to keep three clean sheets in the group stage, allowing Liverpool to finish second and dramatically progress ahead of Olympiakos on goal difference following a late Steven Gerrard strike. The last sixteen was a replay of the quarter-final in Dudek’s first season at Liverpool: this time he was able to triumph over Bayer Leverkusen, limiting them to one goal in each leg as the team won 6-2 on aggregate. His clean sheet in the second leg of the quarter-final against Juventus was largely down to a stellar defensive effort, but he did what was needed when called upon to ensure Liverpool progressed to a semi-final against Chelsea. This was the tie that saw the famous ‘ghost goal’: more excellent defending combined with two strong showings from Dudek meant that this single controversial finish was enough to win the tie for Rafael Benitez’ team.

This was the road that led Dudek to Istanbul. The final would turn out to be the greatest night of his career, and of the lives of many a Liverpool fan. The opponent was AC Milan, at the time one of the greatest club sides ever assembled. Any win for Liverpool would have been astonishing, but what transpired was the greatest footballing miracle of all time.

At half time, Dudek cannot have been imagining that this game would be the one that defined his career. He had already shipped three goals, and with Pirlo and Kaka providing the service for Crespo it looked as though more were inevitable. In fact, it had not been the worst half for the keeper – the incision of Milan’s passing had left him with little chance on any of the goals, and he had made a smart stop to deny Shevchenko. Nonetheless, walking off having just seen Crespo loop the ball over his head for Milan’s third, Dudek cannot have been feeling particularly positive. Like all great players, however, he rallied. Early in the second half he was on hand to deny Shevchenko once again, this time keeping out a free kick from the Ukrainian.

His attacking teammates took centre stage in the next few moments. Just a minute after Dudek’s save, Gerrard had scored at the other end – his header evaded Dida, and the captain gave his now-iconic rallying cry to players and fans alike. They responded: it was not long before Vladmir Smicer drove the ball into the corner to reduce the deficit to just one. It took just three more minutes to complete the remarkable turnaround – Gerrard was fouled in the box by Gattuso, and Alonso slammed home the rebound after seeing his initial spot kick saved.

Following this astonishing passage of play, the focus turned firmly back on Dudek and his defence. Wave after wave of Milan pressure was piled on his goal, as some of the best players ever to grace a pitch combined to try and restore their lead. They found themselves repeatedly denied – in normal time it was the defence who took up most of the strain, with both Carragher and Traore making inspired blocks. In extra time, even the heroics of the defenders was not enough to prevent the ball falling to Shevchenko from six yards out. It looked a certain goal: Dudek had other ideas. He pulled off a superb reflex save, only to see the ball fall back to the feet of Shevchenko. The keeper hauled himself off the floor as quickly as possible, and somehow managed to deflect the second attempt over the bar. That this most unlikely of saves had been made filled everyone with belief that this could be -  this had to be - Liverpool’s night.

That said, Dudek’s work was far from done. His extraordinary double-save had forced penalties: now it was his job to keep them out. He rose to the challenge in heroic fashion, in so doing creating a legacy of one of the most iconic individual performances of all time. Serginho stepped up to take Milan’s first penalty, but blazed it over following Dudek’s attempts to distract him with the ‘spaghetti legs’ made famous by Bruce Grobbelaar. Hamann overcame a broken toe to slot his penalty home. Pirlo was up next for Milan. Dudek dived low to his right, and was able to palm the ball away. Cisse scored his spot kick, and it was 2-0. Victory was almost tangible. The drama was not over yet, however – Dudek could do nothing to deny Tomasson, and then his counterpart Dida was able to keep out Riise’s penalty. Kaka then converted, as did Vladmir Smicer: this left it at 3-2 after four penalties each, as Andriy Shevchenko stepped forwards.  He had been denied time and time again by Dudek throughout the match, and approached the ball knowing that he had to find a way past this time in order to keep his team in the match. He could not do so. He went down the middle as Dudek again dived to the right, but the keeper threw out a strong left hand to keep the ball out. He had no right to make the save having dived away, but then Liverpool had no right to win – it was an end befitting of the most remarkable game ever witnessed.

Dudek’s teammates descended upon him: he was the hero. In hindsight, it’s something of a shame that this was not the Pole’s final bow for the club. The following season he was replaced as readily as Westerveld had been before him, as Pepe Reina was brought in to be the number one. Still, this unfortunate ending could not sour the memories of Istanbul; nothing could ever detract from something so perfect. In any case, the ending on Merseyside opened up the door for a new beginning in Madrid. By the time he left at the end of the 2006/07 season, he was 34 years old – there aren’t many who can say they’ve been coveted by Los Blancos at such a stage in their career. Of course, it was understood by all parties that Dudek would play a back-up role to Casillas; this did not prevent the Pole from being taken firmly into the hearts of the Real faithful. His work ethic and attitude were as faultless as they had been throughout his career: on the few occasions he was called upon, he excelled. This included an impressive clean sheet on his debut against Real Zaragoza, and a second shut-out when given a game in the Champions League against Zenit St Petersburg.

His final appearance – only his second in the league since coming to the club – came against UD Almeria. Real ran out 7-1 winners, and in the 77^th minute Dudek was substituted so as to receive a guard of honour from his teammates. This encapsulated the love and respect that Dudek had won through the way he had conducted himself at the club: in recognition of this, and of his stellar career as a whole, he was applauded off by the likes of Ronaldo, Benzema and fellow hero of Istanbul Xabi Alonso.

This was a fitting end to an extraordinary career. He has enough memories to spend a happy retirement simply dwelling on them, but Dudek’s mining background could never allow such lack of industry – instead, he has taken up motor racing. He is a man who lives for putting in hard graft and seeing what rewards he can reap from it. His journey to the top was correspondingly methodical rather than mercurial, but when he got there he wrote his name into football history.