Salah: Stick or Twist?

Mohamed Salah’s mercurial form last season saw him finish not only as the Golden Boot winner and record goal-scorer in a 38-game season, but as the highest scoring player ever in a Fantasy Premier League season. In response, the powers that be slapped a 13-million-pound price tag on his head for the 2018/19 campaign. Many managers – over 2.4 million of them, in fact – did not think twice about splashing 13% of their budget on the Egyptian. After all, if he even came close to replicating last season’s numbers he would repay the investment in kind. So far, however, he does not look like the Salah of 2017/18. A number of squandered chances has left many people’s patience running thin, but the big question is this: stick or twist?

Let’s start by looking at the raw numbers. After seven games last season, Salah had netted four times in the league and assisted two further goals. Arsenal and Manchester City were the stand-out games in a relatively kind run; this allows for a near-direct comparison to this campaign, where Liverpool’s fixture list has thrown up tough clashes against Chelsea and Spurs in amongst some more routine matches. In these seven games, Salah has notched three goals and two assists: the numbers are nearly identical to last year. Of course, the missed chances last season could be explained away as a period of adaptation for Salah at his new club – with this excuse no longer available, it is natural to ask whether this relatively pedestrian start by Salah’s high standards is set to continue beyond the opening few games. However, it is at the very least reassuring for Salah owners that he is pretty much on par with the start he made to his record-breaking campaign.

It is also true that Salah’s squandering of big chances is nothing new. It was well-publicised, mostly by jealous opposition fans, that Mohamed Salah missed the most clear-cut chances out of anybody in the league last season – he was scoring for fun, but was missing his fair share too. This started from the very first game at Watford, where he probably should have had a debut hattrick; it is a product of Liverpool’s high-octane attacking play. There were fantasy managers at the time who were scared away by this wastefulness, but they were quickly made to rue it. A huge part of Salah’s appeal lies in his movement and unerring ability to get on the end of chances. The most important question is whether he has continued to do so this season. He undoubtedly has: the wastefulness that has so frustrated his owners in FPL is equally a sign that he is still doing everything right bar the finishing. This is little consolation to those who have seen a damning ‘4’ by the name of their captain for three of the last four weeks, but it should discourage these owners from selling. Every indication is that the goals will soon come.

This theory is backed up by the upturn in Liverpool’s fixtures in the near future. While it has not been the most taxing start ever faced, Klopp’s side have had the toughest fixtures of any of the top four so far. A difficulty calculation based on league positions puts Liverpool on seventy-five points, while Chelsea are on 60 and City sit on a mere 45.  After they face their biggest test yet at the weekend against Guardiola’s men, things start to look a lot more promising for Liverpool in terms of points potential. A run of Huddersfield, Cardiff, Arsenal, Fulham and Watford is about as good as it gets for Klopp’s side – each are set up with vulnerabilities just waiting to be exploited by Liverpool, and any one of those matches could plausibly end up with the Reds netting four or five. Even after this, a sequence of Watford, Everton, Burnley and Bournemouth awaits: the points potential here is perhaps slightly less huge, but the difference is marginal. If there was a time to sell Salah, it was surely three weeks ago rather than on the cusp of one of the kindest runs any top side will ever face.

However, there are of course valid concerns about hanging on to Salah. Most of them are the same ones that existed before a ball was even kicked – £13 million is a huge proportion of the budget, and there might well be better ways to spend it. The goalscoring form of Sadio Mane makes him a viable alternative for a saving of around 3 million, while Eden Hazard is scoring excellently for Chelsea. Kevin de Bruyne’s return will provide another premium option, and Raheem Sterling appears to be a regular in City’s setup once more after a relatively gradual reintroduction to the team following World Cup duty. Equally, sacrificing Salah for a more budget midfielder is one obvious way of accommodating both Kane and Aguero up front: experience teaches us that this is a pretty reliable front two. There is no easy answer, just as there was no one correct way of doing things right from the start: what is clear is that if Salah is to be rejected on the basis of his relative lack of value, it should not be a decision informed too heavily by his relatively steady start.

There is one fresh concern that has only arisen since the start of the new season, and which may be enough to tip the balance for some people in favour of getting rid of Salah. Rotation of Liverpool’s front three was already likely around European matches, particularly since they acquired more depth in the squad over the course of a positive summer. Specifically, Xherdan Shaqiri’s arrival from Stoke posed a minor risk to the reliability of Salah’s league minutes – this was only a slight concern, however, given that the man dubbed the Egyptian King seemed nigh-on undroppable based on his form from the end of the last campaign. This is no longer the case, as seen by Klopp’s withdrawal of Salah after 65 minutes against Chelsea. Perhaps even more significant is the remarkable renaissance of Daniel Sturridge. His recent form demands game time, and over the course of the kind run of league games he is bound to be handed some starts; this could be at the expense of any one of the front three, or else in a 4-2-3-1 that accommodates all of them, but there is no denying that his resurgence places more question marks than ever before over the safety of Salah’s consistent place in the side. On its own this concern is not great enough to prompt owners to sell, as Salah will surely continue to feature in the vast majority of games, but it is another thing to think about when weighing up the various pros and cons.

On the whole, it would be wise for Salah owners to give him at least a few more weeks. His underlying performances promise a glut of goals before too long, and a very kind run of fixtures might be precisely what is needed to get him back on the sort of form that saw him priced at £13 million in the first place. The fact that others are panic-selling only increases his appeal – Salah as a differential is an exciting prospect. There are many tempting ways of spending the savings from leaving him out, and some of these alternatives may end up being the better way forward, but even with all of his misses it is a fairly safe bet that Salah will ultimately deliver for those that keep him.

Check out my other recent pieces:
Ruben de la Red: https://footyanalyst.com/ruben-de-la-red-a-legends-career-cut-short/

Colossus weekly columns:
1. https://blog.colossusbets.com/7-points-in-7-days-5/

2. https://blog.colossusbets.com/james-martins-seven-points-in-seven-days-2

Liverpool 4-0 West Ham: Here We Go Again

Strap yourselves in. Liverpool are back, and in some style; West Ham United were put to the sword on the opening day at Anfield. Klopp’s men picked up where they left off during an impressive pre-season, dismantling the Hammers just as they had done to Napoli a week previously. It was an assured performance from front to back, and gave even the most cautious fan reason for optimism.

There is only one place to start, and that is with Naby Keita. The Guinean midfielder was outstanding on his competitive debut for Liverpool, immediately showcasing exactly what he can bring to a midfield that was in need of an injection of dynamism. There will be sterner tests than Pellegrini’s West Ham, whose half-baked high line was only ever going to end one way, but Keita was ruthless in exploiting it. Time and time again he drove at the defence, sprung a pass at exactly the right moment and set a runner free. It was in this manner that the deadlock was broken, just before the twenty-minute mark: Keita released Robertson in space down the left, and the Scot produced an inch-perfect ball across the face of the goal for Salah to turn home. It was a satisfying goal to score – the best teams have got creating unmissable opportunities down to an art form, and Liverpool certainly seem to be improving in this regard.

The chances, already fairly free-flowing, came thicker and faster after the opening goal. Firmino’s selfless square ball could not be turned home by Salah from close range, but it looked a matter of time before Fabianski was beaten again. Sure enough, moments before half time, Milner did excellently to salvage a cross that looked too deep – the defence had switched off, and Sadio Mane was on hand to turn the ball home for Liverpool’s second. This was just one of many excellent contributions from the headband-sporting Milner, who was clearly not experiencing any adverse effects following his fifteen stitches; his renaissance of late has been truly remarkable, and Fabinho may be wondering just how he’s going to break into the team! Gini Wijnaldum, another player who could have shied away in the face of increased midfield competition, put in a typically tidy performance while also posing a little of the added attacking threat he has shown throughout pre-season.

The front three have little to fear in the way of starting status, and they showcased their brilliance once again for the third goal. Firmino embarked upon a typically industrious run before slipping the ball through for Sadio Mane – there was a huge slice of fortune in that the flag should clearly have been raised for offside, but Mane capitalised on the officiating error and slotted the ball away to totally kill off the game. This brace for the Senegalese winger could be a sign of things to come; he has definitely adapted to a more central role in the past few months, a move formalised by his adoption of the number 10 shirt for the new season, and he will be hoping to get on the end of many more moves over the course of the campaign.

Henderson and Shaqiri were soon introduced, a mark of the increased quality of depth that Liverpool now boast. The former Stoke man looked lively on his competitive debut, although with the match already wrapped up the tempo was understandably fairly relaxed. The captain was tidy as ever, keeping things ticking over as Klopp’s side moved towards a near-perfect opening day result. As it happened, things were about to get even better. Daniel Sturridge was introduced for the last five minutes – he has had an astonishingly good pre-season, reminding everyone exactly what he is capable of when he remains fit for a sustained period, and it took just twenty seconds for him to find the net in this cameo. He showed his familiar poacher’s instinct to get on the end of a cross from a corner and turn the ball home, in doing so sending Liverpool to the top of the table.

Now it’s just a small task of staying there for the next thirty-seven weeks. A tough ask, certainly, but one that for the first time in years the squad will feel is not beyond them. Keita looks all set to prove a truly transformative signing in the middle of the park, while Alisson will win points on his own if he even comes close to his form at Roma. Already, his cool distribution is handing Liverpool more control over games. Shaqiri provides much-needed quality cover for the front three, as well as possessing the versatility to drop into midfield when the team really needs to go for it. This amounts to nearly all of last season’s key weaknesses being addressed – and last season wasn’t half bad! In a league of fine margins, these additions could make a big difference. One thing’s for sure: we are in for an exciting season.

See my round-up of all the week's football action over on Colossus Bets:
https://blog.colossusbets.com/shaw-on-the-mend-its-7-points-in-7-days/

McDonald’s FIFA World Cup Fantasy: How to Play

After a long and painful wait of more than three weeks since the end of FPL, fantasy football is back with FIFA’s official World Cup game. There are plenty of similarities – right down to the starting budget, which is the same except for valuation in euros rather than pounds – but there are some minor differences that could catch out the unprepared manager. Here is a quick look at what you need to know.

The starting point will be familiar to anybody who has played the Premier League game. Fifteen players must be selected, with a maximum of three players from any one team; each player has been assigned a value, and there is an initial 100 million euros to spend. Out of these fifteen, eleven must be selected for each round in a recognised formation. A captain can be selected to score double points for the round. So far, so familiar. However, the workings of the bench are where things start to get complicated. Unlike in FPL, there is the possibility for manual substitutions within a round – if a player has underperformed, he can be replaced with a bench option who is yet to play in that round. So, for example, if Mo Salah was restricted to thirty minutes against Uruguay and failed to score, a manager could replace him with Bryan Ruiz in anticipation of a points haul for the Costa Rican against Serbia. It will be noted that this example involves swapping a forward for a midfielder: this is allowable, provided the formation stays within the valid options. The same thing applies to the captaincy, which can be shifted from player to player throughout the round if the initial selection does not do as well as hoped.

With this in mind, it makes sense to ‘front-load’ the starting eleven with players who will feature early on in a round, in the knowledge that they can be removed later on if necessary. Padded out the squad with a Saudi Arabian defender? Stick him in. Worried about Salah’s game time? Captain him anyway. Even if it seems highly unlikely that players in the earlier games will score particularly well, it is nonetheless worth starting them, in the knowledge that they can be swapped out for a more promising option if they do indeed fail to produce. The only drawback of this is that it requires managers to be very much on the ball - it is all too easy to stuff the team full of Russians only to forget to take them out. If this sounds like you, then take note: there is a system of automatic substitutions, but it only comes into effect if you have made no manual captain switches or substitutions within the round. In other words, if you do not have time to continually check back in with your team during the tournament, it’s probably best not to do any mid-round tinkering at all; the safety-net of auto-substitutions for players who did not feature is likely to be more useful, but will not come into effect if you have made any manual changes. 

That’s the really hard part out of the way. Other differences include tweaks to the rules once the group stage ends. The budget, for example, increases by 5 million euros for the knockout stages to account for the fact that many budget options will have been eliminated. Transfer rules also change: there is an amnesty when the group stages end, during which unlimited transfers can be made without incurring a points hit. Player prices are also adjusted at this point to reflect their performances. Aside from this window, the transfer procedures are fairly similar to those of FPL – there is one free transfer per round in the group stage, any transfers beyond this limit cost four points, and there is one wildcard that can be deployed at any time in order to make unlimited free transfers before the next round. Notably, free transfers increase to three per round prior to the quarter-finals and semi-finals, and then five before the final round (which includes the third-place playoff). It is also important to flag up that free transfers cannot be saved: if a manager opts not to make a free transfer before a round, he simply forfeits that transfer.

There are also two chips to talk about. The concept is borrowed directly from FPL, but only one chip works in exactly the same fashion: this is the bench boost. This must be played before the start of a round, and serves to count the points from all fifteen players in the squad rather than just the eleven starters. The other chip, which also has to be deployed prior to the start of a round, is slightly more interesting. It is called ‘Maximum Captain’, and works by assigning the captaincy to whichever player ends up scoring the most points in the round. This would be a tantalising prospect in FPL; in the World Cup game it is of slightly less significance, in that the aforementioned scope to change the captain midway through a round already increases the chances of making a good captaincy, but it is nonetheless a powerful chip. Each chip can only be used once during the tournament; the rules somewhat unhelpfully fail to state whether they can be used in conjunction, either with each other or with a wildcard, but if it works in the same way as FPL then this will not be possible.

It only remains to sketch out the scoring system itself. It may seem odd to relegate this to the bottom of the article, but the rules here are almost identical to those of FPL – anybody who has played that game will be highly familiar with the vast majority of the system. In short, points are awarded for appearance, scoring, assisting and making saves; they are deducted for conceding, scoring own goals and getting carded. There are only a couple of slight differences. There is an additional mechanism whereby players earn two points for winning a penalty, regardless of the outcome of the spot kick, and lose a point for giving away a penalty. Handballs are excluded from this calculus. There is also no bonus points system. If a knockout game goes to extra time, points scored in this period do count. Penalty shootouts, however, are excluded.

Hopefully this has been useful in establishing what you need to know about FIFA’s official World Cup fantasy football game. Best of luck!

- Follow me on Twitter @JamesMartin013

See my Premier League season review for Colossus Bets here:
Part 1 - http://ow.ly/TE5J30k6iBx
Part 2 - https://goo.gl/3ewpPm

Liverpool 5-2 Roma: Post-Match Thoughts

Rome wasn’t built in a day, but it looks to have fallen in the space of ninety minutes. Eusebio Di Francesco had marshalled his men through to this point, conquering the likes of Barcelona along the way, but venturing to the fields of Anfield Road was a stretch too far for the Italians. One of the greatest performances ever witnessed in a European semi-final saw Roma put to the sword; a rampant Liverpool smashed five past them, and in truth could have had many more. A late rally from the vanquished side saw them steal two away goals, but Klopp can now march on Rome with a three-goal lead. 

It says something about the new standards that the German has instilled that many fans came away from the match with at least a hint of frustration. The very notion that a performance in which five goals are scored in a Champions League semi-final is somehow not good enough is a bizarre one, and yet that was the feeling amongst some – the two late goals were sloppy ones to concede, and introduced at least a tiny hint of doubt into Liverpool minds. However, to dwell on this would be absurdly negative. Five goals. In a semi-final. The magnitude of the achievement is hard to take in. The Anfield side have very much announced their return to the top level of the game, and they are making opponents at that level look amateur. Such are the usually fine margins at this rarefied peak of the sport, fifteen of the last seventeen home first-leg winners have gone on to win the tie – a home win is often the slight advantage that can settle things, and Liverpool have produced a home demolition. A Champions League final is in touching distance: this is not a time for negativity, this is the most exciting time to be a Liverpool fan in at least a decade.

Not least amongst the reasons for this excitement is a certain Mo Salah. The Egyptian once again produced a display of the highest quality, tormenting his former club with his pace, trickery and finishing. Oh, the finishing. The first was a masterpiece of both power and precision, rifling a strike into the very top corner after he had been allowed to cut inside from the right. Alisson, arguably Roma’s best player this season, was left helpless as the ball flew past him: this was a feeling he would be getting used to for the rest of the night. The second goal, in its own way, was just as good: Salah timed his run to perfection before delicately lifting the ball over the onrushing Brazilian stopper. Anfield held its breath as it looped up – would it drop in? The colossal roar that followed provided the answer. 

This is far from a one-man team, however: both of the other members of the front three would hit the net before the night was done. It was Sadio Mane who made it three, sending the Liverpool fans into total raptures – he had missed some big opportunities in the first half, but was in the right place to turn home a cross from close range. Firmino, who had registered the assist for both of the Salah goals, then set about getting on the scoresheet himself. His first was almost a carbon copy of Mane’s goal. He showed the awareness to pick up a good position, and reaped his reward with an easy finish. His second, to bring the team’s goal tally up to a staggering five, was a simple header from a Milner corner; Roma looked broken, and could not even master the basics at this point. Incidentally, the assist makes Milner the all-time leading assister for a single Champions League season: this fittingly marks his remarkable renaissance. The injury to Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain, so devastating on a personal level for a player just beginning to hit the form of his career, makes it all the more important that Milner can keep up these high standards.

Of course, the game ended on something of a sour note. Lovren, who had been integral to repelling Roma’s early onslaught in the first half, was caught out – a relatively simple ball over the top towards Dzeko was misjudged, and the Bosnian had time to take it down and finish past Karius at the near post. Then came the penalty: Milner was perhaps naïve to have his arm out as he moved to block the ball, but it is nonetheless a harsh interpretation to call it a deliberate handball. In any case, Perotti converted the penalty coolly to give Roma at least a semblance of hope. However, in any other circumstances, would Roma’s chances even be under genuine discussion having lost the first leg by three goals? The combination of the timing of their two goals and their success in overturning a margin of the same size against Barcelona in the last round have made people underplay the enormity of Liverpool’s achievement. There is an almost an attitude that it is ‘only’ three goals, and that somehow Klopp’s men are still very vulnerable going into the second leg. Anything could happen, that goes without saying, but whether the lead is three or five it would take a disaster to throw it away in Rome. The Anfield side are undoubtedly in the ascendency, and firmly so – for this, every single player on the pitch deserves immense credit.

- @JamesMartin013

Resilient Reds March on in Europe

The ever-more familiar chorus reverberated from the away end at The Etihad after the final whistle: Allez, Allez, Allez. It was a victory cry – Liverpool had pulled off a remarkable feat, not only winning the tie against Manchester City but triumphing in both legs. The song sings of historic successes, from Paris down to Turkey; progression to the semi-final of this year’s competition allows fans to begin to believe in earnest that Kyiv can be added to that list.

It was the kind of game that lays bare the raw emotion of football. The first half was a true ordeal – the early goal was essentially a playing-out of the worst nightmares of the fans, and the persistent barrage that followed induced horrific amounts of stress. It was almost unwatchable, and yet no pair of Liverpool eyes could be torn away from the action. It was a minor miracle that half-time was reached with the score only 1-0. The defence must take some credit – admittedly they should never have dropped so deep, but City effectively forced them to do so, and having retreated they defended like heroes. Lovren, much-maligned in his career at the club, was prepared to throw his body on the line time and time again. His desperate leap, just flicking the ball with the slightest of touches, may well have been responsible for diverting Bernardo Silva’s shot onto the woodwork. Van Dijk rallied magnificently after being at fault for the opener, marshalling the back line and clearing multiple aerial balls to safety. Robertson rode his luck against Sterling, and was fortunate not to concede a penalty, but ultimately managed to keep him fairly contained. Alexander-Arnold seemed to be walking a tightrope after a concerningly early yellow card up against Sane, but proceeded to put in yet another unbelievably mature display to keep the German largely under wraps. It is only fair to say that Sane should have added City’s second – the ball fell to him after a Karius punch ricocheted off Milner, and the linesman’s flag should not have gone up. However, nobody wins a major trophy without getting a slice of fortune along the way. This was Liverpool’s, but they knew they would have to regroup for the second half if they were to make the most of this gift.

Another half in the same vein as the first would simply not have been sustainable. This is no criticism of Liverpool’s back line, but when a collection of the world’s best attacking talent crash upon a defence in wave after wave it cannot be expected to hold out indefinitely. The players knew this, and Klopp undoubtedly reinforced the point at half time. It had an effect: the visitors emerged with more purpose, bravely stepping up where in the first half they would not have done so. This did leave slightly more space for City, which was occasionally alarming, but the net effect was definitely positive. Key to this was the relentless Roberto Firmino. He had been one of the stand-outs in the first half, seemingly the only player capable of showing the technique and composure to beat the City press before releasing a runner to temporarily relieve pressure; in the second period he was aided by his teammates showing more eagerness to step up with him, and the team reaped the rewards. The Brazilian produced a trademark charge back to within his own half to retrieve the ball from an advancing Kevin De Bruyne – it was the ensuing move that sent Liverpool fans everywhere into raptures.

The ball made its way to Gini Wijnaldum, who had begun to see a little more of it in the second half. He coolly drifted away from his man, and found Oxlade-Chamberlain. He drove forwards, before producing a lovely outside-of-the-boot pass to pick out Mohamed Salah. Salah fed Mane, who ran into a rapidly-closing gap between Laporte and Fernandinho. Between the pair of them, and the subsequent lunge from Ederson, there was surely a foul on the winger: roars of outrage undoubtedly emanated from the households of all Liverpool fans. These turned to guttural screams of delight, or perhaps more accurately of relief, as Salah picked up the loose ball and produced a sublime chip to score. There are no words to do justice to the release of tension felt in that moment – suddenly City needed four more goals, and although it was not over it was clear that more of the same from Liverpool would be enough to see them into the semi-final.

In the end, they added to their aggregate lead. City were rattled, once again showing the intangible benefits of a club with a history of producing the impossible at the vital moments – they had no European experiences from which to draw hope, while Liverpool played like men who knew that they were merely following those who had gone before them by brushing aside all those standing between them and European glory. It was Otamendi who made the crucial error: Liverpool’s press reduced him to his former error-prone self over the two legs, and on this occasion it was Firmino who robbed him. He then calmly ghosted into a scoring position, before curling it beyond Ederson and in for the goal he so richly deserved. At this point, the celebrations could truly begin.

Focus now inevitably turns to the semi-finals. The draw is made on Friday, and in a shock turnaround will feature Roma. They produced an astounding comeback of the kind City could not muster – this shows that they will not make life easy for any potential opponents, but they surely have to be the preferred team to come up against. That said, Liverpool will not be overawed by any opponent: they did a job on one of Europe’s best, triumphing 5-1 on aggregate. Roared on by fans in delirium at the prospect of more European glory, absolutely anything is possible for this great group of players. Allez, Allez, Allez.

-          Follow me on Twitter @JamesMartin013

Liverpool 3-0 Manchester City: Reds Deliver Under the Lights

There are nights when everything just comes together for a football team. Each of the players knows their role and executes it perfectly, spurred on by a crowd in full voice, against an opposition cowed by the perfect storm of the hostile atmosphere and the class of what they have found themselves up against. This was one of those nights. Liverpool is synonymous with European nights, and City felt the full force of that pedigree as they were simply blown away by one of the all-time great performances in the Champions League.

It is hard to know where to start in analysing the win, as every single player in a red shirt did all that could be expected of them and more. However, even amongst this sea of quality, Trent Alexander-Arnold deserves to be singled out for praise. He was recently made to endure torrid times against both Anthony Martial and Wilfried Zaha; prior to the game, many were worried about how he would fare against Leroy Sane, a front-runner for the Young Player of the Year award and an undeniably mercurial talent. Not only did he cope, he completely pocketed the German – it was plain that Guardiola had sent his men out to target Alexander-Arnold’s flank, but the local boy ensured that this decision would be one the manager came to regret. Any full-back who put in such a performance would have had praise heaped on them: for it to be a 19 year-old, in the context of a relatively rough patch of form that brought his performance on this biggest of stages under significant scrutiny, is nothing short of remarkable. It is testament to his character as well as his ability, and it reinforced the point that he has the attributes to make that spot his own for many years to come. 

It would be remiss to praise the full-back without also giving credit to both Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain and Gini Wijnaldum. In the first half, it was the former Arsenal man who was tasked with doubling up on Sane to ensure that he could get no joy. His discipline was relentless, and when Trent was covering the winger Oxlade-Chamberlain was never far away. The first ten minutes in particular highlighted his immense versatility – City dominated possession in the early stages, and the summer acquisition essentially sat in as a right wing-back directly in front of the conventional full-back to ensure there would be no overload down the flank. Once the crowd had roared Liverpool into the ascendency, unperturbed by City’s attempts to calm things down, Chamberlain showed just what he had to offer going the other way: after the industry of Firmino and the composure of Salah had made the first goal, he positively rifled in the second from long range. It was a sumptuous strike, leaving Ederson helpless: everything about his performance was deserving of such a goal. Wijnaldum took over the role for the bulk of the second half, following Salah’s precautionary withdrawal. Few players have the diverse skill set that makes Oxlade-Chamberlain so useful, so it was far from a given that the Dutchman would be able to step up and ensure Alexander-Arnold remained well-protected while still offering something going forward. However, he performed the task equally well. At times this season he has looked lost on the pitch, floating around without seeming to know his purpose – on the night he was machine-like, carrying out his instructions methodically and perfectly. Sane did not get any more joy after the introduction of Wijnaldum, and when Liverpool did manage to recover the ball he was instrumental in surging out of the defensive third and relieving pressure. It is refreshing to know that Liverpool have a degree of depth in the squad that allows such tidy players to be called upon when needed.

The final player worth singling out for special praise is the scorer of Liverpool’s third goal, Sadio Mane. The goal itself was impressive: an inch-perfect floated cross from Salah was met emphatically by the Senegalese winger, who powered a textbook header past Ederson. However, it was the overall performance that was most admirable. His touch, the one thing that has looked consistently less than its best for him this season, was largely faultless. His runs were direct and positive, the best of which left Otamendi on the floor. His decision-making was spot on, never running down blind alleys or ignoring passing options. A Mane in this sort of form is just as unplayable as his Egyptian counterpart on the other side – certainly City were not equipped to handle either of them.

Ultimately, though, not one player let the side down. Every last man put in one of the performances of their lives, and those that think the atmosphere had no part to play just don’t grasp football. James Milner took a video of the coach’s arrival, from inside the team bus itself: pulling in through streets lined with fans wielding banners and flairs, singing the praises of the Liverpool players on that bus, could hardly fail to inspire them. Equally, City cannot have enjoyed the wall of jeers that first met them on Anfield Road and continued throughout the ninety minutes inside the stadium. It was intimidating, the kind of support City could only dream of conjuring up, the kind of support that only really comes with true European pedigree. Nobody would deny that football is about fine margins, so if the crowd can give their players that extra level while even just slightly overawing the opposition then it is of course capable of making all the difference. This is what was witnessed at Anfield.

It would be easy to forget just how good a side Manchester City have proved themselves to be this season. This very weekend they will have the opportunity to formally wrap up the league title with more than a month to spare, and only one club – you guessed it – have been able to beat them in the league all season. The case can be made that they are the best technical side in Europe: indeed, many were making that case before their drubbing at the hands of Klopp’s men. If they can be dismantled in this way, so can any of the teams left in the competition: Liverpool will go to the Etihad not only confident that they can see the tie out, but that they have the potential to go all the way. Of course, the hardest work is yet to come, but when he came to the helm Klopp called for fans to be believers rather than doubters: that is an easy call to answer after a night like this.

- James Martin (@JamesMartin013)

Looking Back at Palace, Looking Forward to City

Jurgen Klopp described the victory over Crystal Palace as a “dirty win”. It was certainly a gritty performance – a lacklustre first-half display required a big response in the second half, and the players duly came out with enough determination and persistence to finally grab a winner in the closing stages. There have been more convincing wins over the course of the season, but in many ways this one was the biggest indicator of how far the team has come under Klopp’s tenure: Liverpool have always had a big scoreline in them, but in the recent past have often struggled to show an ability to drag themselves back from behind against the ‘lesser’ teams. That said, it will need to be the ‘other’ Liverpool who report for duty on Wednesday night: Manchester City are anything but a lesser team, and it will take pure firepower to blow them away.

The trip to Selhurst Park was never going to be an easy game for Liverpool. Not only have Palace become something of a bogey team in recent times, 12:30 kick-offs have also proved difficult for the current crop of players. Perhaps it is something to do with the high-intensity tactics that Klopp demands – regardless, there were plenty of reasons to fear that the three points would not be straightforward. So it proved: the early kick-off was actually beneficial in that it gives the team slightly more rest prior to the massive match against City, but sure enough it seemed to take the team a while to get going. Alexander-Arnold is still a teenager – it showed that he might rather still be in bed, as he was repeatedly skinned by Wilfried Zaha in the early stages. It was this that led to the goal. A Benteke flick-on was not anticipated by the promising youngster, and Zaha nipped round him and reached the ball before an onrushing Karius could get there. A penalty was correctly awarded, and Milivojevic slotted it away with characteristic coolness. Liverpool could have had a penalty of their own moments later, after Sadio Mane flung himself down following contact in the box, but in general chances were hard to come by in the first period.

Fortunately, the second half saw a highly pleasing response. Liverpool were level inside ten minutes, the much-maligned Mane finally getting some luck as he poked home at the near post to make it 1-1. Palace came on strongly after this, but Klopp’s men weathered the storm – Karius should take credit for an important save, and it must be said that the referee deserves some thanks for bizarrely failing to show Mane a second yellow card for a handball. Perhaps wisely, the Senegalese winger was withdrawn shortly afterwards – his replacement, Oxlade-Chamberlain, had a very positive impact. He was notionally a straight swap for Mane, but it was clear that he enjoys a more central role; he drifted inside regularly, and his driving runs from there caused the Palace defence a headache. Another change, this one enforced, was also key: Lallana’s terrible luck with injuries continued, but Klopp responded with a masterstroke by replacing him with Lovren and switching to three at the back. The full-backs, freed from their defensive shackles, were given a new lease of life – both of their Palace counterparts were terrorised, as Alexander-Arnold in particular put in a series of teasing crosses. In the end, though, it was Robertson who made the telling ball. He found Mo Salah in the middle, who showed his typically unerring composure to sit down Mamadou Sakho and slot it past the keeper for the winner. His debut season has got to the point where it defies description. His latest record at least does some sort of justice to the impact he has had: Salah has now scored in the joint-most league games in a single season, with six matches still left to play.

The focus now shifts to midweek, where everyone will be hoping that Salah can reproduce his mercurial form on the European stage. Indeed, everyone will have to be at their best in order to overcome Guardiola’s Manchester City: a strong case can be made that they are the best team in Europe right now, and nothing short of two perfect games is likely to be good enough over the course of the tie. Still, the players can take encouragement from the fact that they know they are capable of beating City – Pep will not simply discard his philosophy in order to try and handle Klopp’s lethal front three, and in any case he does not have a defence capable of containing them, so there are bound to be gaps left in behind as a result of City’s expansive style. The Anfield advantage could also play a part in the first leg. Guardiola admitted last time out that his players got caught up in it: any advantage Liverpool can get is welcome, and the stadium is bound to be buzzing for the first European quarter-final in nearly a decade. It is vital that the team leave Anfield either level or ahead – ideally City would be prevented from notching up too many away goals, but in a tie that is likely to turn into a frenzied shootout this should not be a factor that serves to inhibit Liverpool’s play.

In many ways, this should be a more enjoyable game than the Palace match. The opposition is both much better overall and defensively less compact – this means that we are better equipped to play against them, but also go in with much less expectation. There will of course be some level of stress: the tantalising prospect of a semi-final in the greatest competition in club football awaits the winners of the tie, so the yearning for a win is intense. However, ultimately, victory or defeat in this matchup will not tell us too much about the overall continued progression of the club: City’s state-funded project effectively lives or dies by rapid success on the biggest stages, whereas Liverpool’s sustainable project remains on track regardless of what happens. Trophies are coming, and hopefully coming soon – whatever the result in this huge tie, that will not change. All that said, victory would be a huge moment not only in the club’s season but in its history: this could prove to be a turning point in our long journey back to the very top.

-          @JamesMartin013

No Kane, No Lukaku: The Home Straight

Ah, the international break. An FPL player’s nightmare, but an FPL blogger’s dream. Plenty of spare time in which to reflect upon the game, sites that need to bulk out their content and a bored audience who would be willing to read essentially anything fantasy-related. All of this makes it the perfect time to return with another ‘no Kane, no Lukaku’ update.

For those who have not been following this mini-series, the premise is that I will go the whole season without bringing in either Kane or Lukaku, the two players considered by many to be must-haves at the start of the campaign. The league is now reaching the business end, and so far I have stayed true to my word – many a Kane goal-fest has burned me, and on occasion Lukaku has punished his non-owners, but on the whole things have gone surprisingly well. Better than most of my previous seasons, in fact. My overall rank has recently broken the 100k mark, which is by all accounts a handy position to be in as we enter the final seven gameweeks. A significant reason for this is Mo Salah. He would be a hero even without the fantasy points he has showered down upon me, as he has fired my beloved Liverpool to a new level, but this extra plus point has elevated him to god status. Of course, anyone with any sense has the Egyptian at this point – captaining him, however, was far from a foregone conclusion until quite recently. The temptation of Kane proved too strong for many of the managers who had the English marksman; this paid dividends for them on occasion, but the sheer consistency of Salah’s returns have ensured that my captain has done well for weeks on end.

 

This brings us on to the most significant recent development as far as the strategy is concerned. I refer to Harry Kane’s injury. On one hand, it represents great news: for the foreseeable future, there will be no more watching Spurs from behind the sofa, and the one player always responsible for pegging back my progress in mini-leagues is out of the picture. However, if anything, the drawbacks are more significant. Kane owners are scrambling to sell, and with no obvious like-for-like replacements their budget is being spread more evenly across the squad. This means a lot of my differentials are getting snapped up, leaving me with little room to make ground on rivals. The price rises are nice – Firmino is now a staggering 1.3 million more than when I bought him - but they don’t directly translate to points. Meanwhile, those who are looking to swap Kane for something resembling an equivalent are bound to turn to Lukaku. The Belgian is re-finding his form, and Manchester United have some very nice fixtures coming up: many more FPL opponents are ready to take advantage of this now he has taken the ‘Kane’ slot in so many squads. In other words, it will simply be the United scores that I dread to check rather than those of Tottenham. It will be far from straightforward retaining a place in the top hundred-thousand during this run-in.

This is particularly true given the double gameweeks that have to be navigated. In terms of chips, I am in relatively good shape – I opted to use the free hit to deal with blank gameweek 31, and was rewarded with a 105-point haul, but the other chips remain available to use. The squad has been honed for many weeks to ensure that all fifteen are getting regular minutes, and that most have a double gameweek: the bench boost or the triple captain are thus ripe to be played in gameweek 34, with the remaining chip being saved for the next double gameweek in 37. Salah’s lack of a double poses something of a dilemma: anyone would think twice about not giving him the armband, and given that he has been so integral in allowing me to remain competitive without Kane it would be tough to give the triple captaincy to anybody else. However, other big hitters who will have an extra game in the week are hard to ignore – chief amongst these is the newly-acquired Heung-Min Son, who is leading the line for Spurs during Kane's absence. I currently sit second in both of my main mini-leagues: getting the triple captaincy right (or wrong) could make or break the entire season. On the plus side, Kane no longer being an option for my opponents, unless they choose to gamble on his late-season fitness, is something of a relief.   

A big perk of the strategy has been the ready availability of funds to invest in the midfield, where there have been multiple premium options producing high points returns. For the final few weeks, I have taken a punt on Mkhitaryan. As mentioned, I have ground to make up in my mini-leagues: his decent form of late, Arsenal’s seemingly endless capacity to start performing well when they no longer have anything to play for and their very kind fixture list made this a gamble I was eager to take. There is the risk of Europa League-induced rotation, which made the ineligible Aubameyang the more tempting option in many ways, but Vardy’s similarly nice run-in made me reluctant to sell him. Thus, my hopes are pinned on the Armenian. In my eagerness to execute this plan, I made my transfers before realising that the international break was imminent – there is now a nervous wait to see whether he or Son get injured while playing for their countries. This was foolish, but the strategy on the whole has proved surprisingly sensible: with any luck, I’ll be able to limp over the line with an overall rank with which I can be pleased.

- @JamesMartin013

Liverpool: Klopp’s Long Game

Lately, something feels different around Liverpool Football Club. It is not just that performances are improving – although it is clear that they are. The steps being taken feel somehow measured. Since Klopp’s arrival at the helm, there has been a sense that a dial is being incrementally cranked up; it is at times so imperceptible as to prompt pundits to ask if there has been progress at the club at all, but taking a step back and looking at the holistic picture reveals that everything is definitely moving in the right direction. In the past, flirtations with success came about through individual brilliance: 2013/14 was the last genuine title charge, and it was spearheaded by the mercurial Luis Suarez. He tried to haul the team along with him in one great leap – as is so often the case with such things, he fell just short. Now, Philippe Coutinho has come and gone, and yet the steady march forward continues. Step by step. Qualification for the Champions League in consecutive seasons looks very possible for the first time in a decade. Meanwhile, in the current season’s competition, Liverpool are alive and kicking after a decimation of Porto in the round of sixteen. Long-term faults are being looked at and, when the right personnel become available, addressed. In short, a dynasty is being rebuilt from the ground upwards.

Part of the excitement when Klopp took charge at Anfield was down to the fact that he is known for being a manager that commits to a project. Particularly in the modern game, his record makes good reading for a club that needs to be given a long-term direction. Mainz: seven years. Borussia Dortmund: seven years. The hope was that he might commit to such a stint on Merseyside, taking the time to shape a team in his image and ultimately restore the club to something like its former self. This is a process that is now well underway. For some while, however, there was much consternation amongst the fans – Klopp seemed content to work with what he had at the start of his tenure. He was instilling his philosophy, yes, but with a squad that many felt was operating at close to its full potential. Lots of fans turned against the owners while looking for answers to their questions: the absence of ‘Klopp signings’ seemed to make no sense unless it was a question of availability of funds. As Liverpool stumbled to 8^th in the 2015/16 season, the only addition being a January loan of Steven Caulker, some had started to worry that they were facing yet another false dawn.

It takes time for the sun to rise, however. Time has revealed that a ‘Klopp signing’ is not all about finding someone with certain attributes desirable in a high-intensity system; it is about singling out individuals who the manager believes will make the biggest impact on his squad, and doing everything possible to secure the signatures of these players. Such a process takes time, and can result in frustration; the failure to acquire Van Dijk in the summer led to a further six months of a defence not really good enough to compete at the highest levels. However, this modus operandi is part of the package with Klopp. His perspective is longer than one transfer window, or indeed one season – he knew that the Dutchman was the man for the job, and refused to settle. Sure enough, in the few games he has played since finally signing in January, Van Dijk has started to show he was worth the wait. Similarly, Naby Keita could only be acquired for next season during the summer attempts to bring him to the club. Klopp was content with this – why would he not be, when one season is such a small price to pay in exchange for another piece in the puzzle that is Liverpool’s attempt to return to the very top?

In any case, faith in the current squad is central to Klopp’s attitude – it would be false to say that Klopp in any way ‘sacrificed’ this season in his pursuit of longer-term goals. That is not to suggest he refuses to acknowledge that there could be improvements, but his faith in his tactical system is overriding. He knows, of course, that the right breed of great players will thrive in his gegenpress even more, but in the meantime all he can ask of his team is to put in the effort. This is 90% of the formula – be prepared to run, get in the faces of the opposition in their own third, and try to prompt turnovers that produce chances anybody could finish off. This is an ethos as much as it is a tactic: naturally, it takes a while to become ingrained in a team. Liverpool are reaching that stage now, and it is no coincidence that consistency is slowly improving. There was out-and-out panic when Coutinho was sold and not replaced, with many envisaging a January collapse of the sort that saw Liverpool’s dream of a title crushed before it had really formed last season. Instead, results have actually picked up. Miraculous, no? Far from it. This is no act of God, but an act of Klopp; every member of the squad knows what is expected when they are called upon, and though they may not have the inspirational qualities of the Brazilian maestro, they have an unwavering understanding of what must be done to succeed in the German’s setup. Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain is a fine example. He left Arsenal hungry for guidance: no doubt fearful of following in the footsteps of Theo Walcott, who burst onto the scene but then stagnated under Wenger’s tutelage, he forced a move away. He has absorbed his new manager’s instructions, becoming a blank slate upon which Klopp can make his mark. As a result, he has been a major asset. In some ways he plays second fiddle to the likes of Mohamed Salah and Roberto Firmino, who steal all of the headlines, but in a more fundamental sense he is one of many equal parts all striving for a common goal.

Where next for this march of progress, and where might it end up? Optimism is rife around Anfield, and rightly so: almost without anybody noticing, Klopp has brought his squad to the brink of greatness. A world-class goalkeeper and a new midfielder would be enough to mount a title challenge in the next campaign; add another top-level centre-back into the mix, and there is potential to become a dominant force. Of course, in embracing Klopp, one must accept that these additions will not be made unless the right people can be brought in – the names floating around are tantalising, particularly Alisson of Roma, but ultimately there has to be faith in the manager’s decisions. That said, the very existence of the rumours suggests that he has identified the remaining problem areas, and feels that the time has come to find the people to address them. These are exciting times to be a Liverpool fan, and for once the groundwork has been laid to ensure that the excitement only continues to grow in the coming years. 

Southampton 0-2 Liverpool: Post-Match Analysis

Despite being some way off their scintillating best, Liverpool were able to stroll past Southampton without any significant problems. Nobody epitomised the cool control more than Virgil Van Dijk, who put in a supremely composed performance against his former club to help secure the clean sheet. At the other end, Firmino and Salah combined twice in the first half to get the goals. More should probably have been added, but ultimately the lead never looked in any real danger.

Southampton have become something of a thorn in Liverpool’s side in recent times, shutting them out four times in the previous five meetings prior to this encounter. There was consequently a sense of relief when Firmino fired Klopp’s side in front inside ten minutes. The hosts did not seem ready for such a high-intensity start, and Salah’s aggressive pressing forced a turnover; the mercurial Egyptian then squared the ball cleverly for his teammate, who fired past McCarthy. Home fans could have been forgiven for fearing the worst at this point; Liverpool’s potent front three have routed opponents on more than one occasion this season. However, credit has to go to Pellegrino’s men – the goal seemed to settle them down rather than unnerve them, and they began to exert surprising amounts of control on proceedings. The threat to the Liverpool defence remained fairly negligible, save for a couple of dangerous deliveries from James Ward-Prowse, but the ease with which Southampton were stroking the ball about was certainly not typical of a team in the relegation zone. Indeed, they comprehensively won the midfield battle: Milner, Can and Oxlade-Chamberlain offered very little, a worrying trend in recent games, and Southampton ended the game with more possession.

Liverpool were chasing shadows for large periods, and were eager for the referee to blow for the half-time whistle so as to regroup. However, it was they who struck before the break – in stark juxtaposition to a fairly underwhelming half, the second goal was sheer quality. Matip strode forward from the back and struck a pass into the feet of Salah, who moved it on to Firmino before carrying on his run. The Brazilian then produced an inspired backheel flick around his marker and back into the path of Salah, who slotted the ball past the keeper for an astounding 22^nd league goal of the campaign. Harsh on Southampton, perhaps, but a thing of beauty: when they link up like that, Liverpool’s attackers are amongst the best in world football.

Unusually for Liverpool, the two-goal lead seemed secure from this point onwards. Part of this was down to the lacklustre response of Pellegrino’s side – if the first goal invigorated them, the second deflated them. The relegation-threatened team seemed, understandably, to be lacking in belief. The loss of Mario Lemina early in the second half also hit them hard; the former Juventus man had been influential in the first period. However, it would be unfair to put the absence of threat to Karius’ goal entirely down to a poor second half showing from Southampton; the visitors’ defence also looked highly assured, marshalled by January signing Virgil Van Dijk. The Dutch colossus was supremely unconcerned by his frosty reception – in the face of the boos he got on with his defensive duties, smirking as he did so. This kind of elite mentality has been lacking from Liverpool since Gerrard and Suarez left in 2014; many of the personnel to pass through the doors since then have been highly talented, but lacking in the kind of arrogant swagger that makes a winner. It is clear that Van Dijk is going to be quite the asset for the club: his presence in the back line is at least part of the solution to what has been a pressing problem. There is a genuine sense that this is now a team which is not too far from greatness.

For now, the focus is firmly on securing a second consecutive finish in the top four. This was another step in that direction; Liverpool have the fewest games left to play against the current top six, and must be considered favourites to hold onto a Champions League place while their rivals take points off each other. United’s slip-up to Newcastle earlier in the day served to further this cause, but also to reinforce the importance of remaining focused – particularly given the amount on the line for the myriad of teams embroiled in a mass relegation scrap, every match is a potential banana skin. No doubt Klopp will be doing all in his power to ensure that his players stick to the task; the next league challenge is up against West Ham, who have enjoyed a decent spell since David Moyes took charge. Before this, though, is the minor matter of Liverpool’s first Champions League knockout match since 2009. The trip to Porto has been highly anticipated by fans – the draw could certainly have been tougher, but again it would be folly to underestimate the opposition. Motivation should certainly not be an issue: the prospect of a place in the last eight for the winner of the tie is a highly tantalising one. One thing is for sure: the likes of Firmino and Salah have proved that they have the requisite quality to win any game. 

Liverpool 4-3 Manchester City: Post-Match Analysis

Few games sum up what it is like to support Liverpool better than the classic that played out when the runaway league leaders, Manchester City, came to Anfield.  Fans felt joy, frustration, elation and then panic as the game unfolded – ultimately they came away very happy indeed, as Klopp’s men held on for a win that deprives City of their unbeaten record in the league and fires Liverpool into third place. Familiar defensive frailties reared their heads, but it was the attackers’ day. The front three, supported by a strong showing from the midfield, were all exceptional; this was reflected in the sheer class of each of the four goals, which were worthy of winning any football match.

Liverpool went into this game in the knowledge that they had a fighting chance. Manchester City’s unbeaten run would undoubtedly have been daunting, but Klopp’s side are putting together quite a string of results themselves: seventeen undefeated before this game. Further, City are the sort of side Liverpool love to play against – only the very best offensive teams back themselves to come to Anfield with real attacking intent, and this leaves space in behind of the kind which Mane and Salah simply love to exploit. There was something of a question mark over whether this weapon would be quite as effective without Coutinho to pick out the explosive runs, but it is fair to say this question was answered emphatically. Inside ten minutes, Liverpool had the lead: it was another of the pacey players, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain, who scored it. Firmino’s typical pressing presented the ball to the midfielder in the attacking third, and his driving run caught City on the back foot. Nobody was quick enough to close him down, and his strike from distance rifled past Ederson and into the bottom corner. On any other day it would have been the best goal of the match; today it was probably the least remarkable of Liverpool’s four, but it was vital in that it turned the strong start into something tangible. There was no relenting after the goal, and City continued to find themselves hustled and harried; it was apparent that this was a side used to being given time to play an expansive game and pick their way through, and they did not look comfortable in the face of the press. For this, all of Liverpool’s midfield must take great credit – Oxlade-Chamberlain, Can and Wijnaldum all played their part in forcing turnovers. When in possession, Wijnaldum and Oxlade-Chamberlain in particular were instrumental in preventing such turnovers from going against them – both of them showed excellent awareness and calmness on a number of occasions to ensure possession was not squandered cheaply. 

Despite this promising and assured performance, Liverpool did not manage to go in at the break with their lead intact. They will feel that they deserved to do so, but they can only blame themselves for the manner in which the equaliser was conceded. For a third time in recent weeks, Joe Gomez had difficulty dealing with a raking cross-field ball – Sane was able to nip in behind him, and after cutting inside he somehow managed to beat Karius at his near post. Gomez can perhaps be afforded some leniency, given that he is young and playing out of position; the German stopper is also inexperienced, but it is difficult to see how a good goalkeeper in any stage of his career manages to concede so cheaply. Klopp’s decision to play him is understandable, given that Mignolet is hardly inspiring either and Karius at least has time on his side in terms of development – it has got to a point, though, where the manager has to seriously question whether either of them are good enough for a side with ambitions as lofty as Liverpool’s.  The attack showed that they remain more than functional even in the absence of the mercurial Coutinho: Klopp may have just had his mind made up for him about where the money from that sale should be invested.

Still, it would be an injustice to the game and the performance to dwell on the unsatisfactory goalkeeping situation – what followed was vintage Liverpool, with all the brilliance and madness that this entails. As the second half began, there looked to be a danger of Klopp’s men deflating; for all their endeavour they were still level on the score-line, and for a short time they played the dangerous game of just absorbing City pressure. Before long, however, things clicked back into gear: the manager said after the game that the only way to beat Guardiola’s team is to attack them, and this is what they set about doing. It was Firmino who restored the lead, in staggeringly good fashion. Salah knocked a ball for him to run on to; Stones looked the firm favourite to get there, but the Brazilian shrugged him off with ease. He then glanced up at the onrushing Ederson and calmly clipped the ball over him and in at the far post – the instantaneous transition from brute strength to sumptuous finishing was reminiscent of Suarez in his prime. Firmino is one of many who can stake a claim to Man of the Match. Oxlade-Chamberlain is another one whose name has to be in the mix, while Andy Robertson is doubtless a contender as well. He delighted the Anfield faithful by frustrating Sterling all game, thwarting him at every turn – this culminated in a booking and early substitution for the former Liverpool man, who will not have enjoyed his return.

City were shaken by conceding – just a minute later they were seemingly let off the hook when Mane struck the woodwork. He was not to be denied, however: yet another attack came after another minute or so, and this time he slammed the ball emphatically into the top corner. As against Burnley, it was an explosive finish on his weaker side: the technique required cannot be underestimated. Not to be outshone, Salah completed a remarkable ten-minute spell for the team with an outrageous goal of his own. Ederson made a rare mistake with his clearance, no doubt shaken by the relentless Liverpool siege, and the Egyptian swept the ball into the unguarded net from all of thirty-five yards as if it was the easiest thing in the world. It feels like this is said every week, but it just gets truer and truer: thirty-five million pounds is one of the greatest bargains of recent years.

Manchester City, the team being understandably treated by most as the champions-elect, the team producing some of the best football in the history of the Premier League, thus found themselves 4-1 down. This is testament to Liverpool’s immense array of attacking firepower, as well as Klopp’s skill in harnessing and optimising it. If he can keep this exciting, talented group together then there is no denying that they can go on to produce special things: seldom has such a good opponent been dismantled with such ease. However, if any sustained success is to be enjoyed, the goings-on at the other end of the field have to be rectified sooner rather than later. Even at 4-1, nobody was treating the result as a foregone conclusion – Liverpool fans have seen too many collapses to take anything as a given. Sure enough, City were allowed to muster a late fightback: Bernardo Silva found himself free in the box to turn the ball home in the 84^th minute, and in the first of four minutes of added time Gundogan was left similarly unmarked to make it 4-3. In less stressful circumstances Lovren’s attempt to intercept the cross would have been comical. There was nothing funny about the possibility of letting such a good, hard-fought position slip, however: Klopp’s fury was evident on the touchline. Virgil Van Dijk has only played one game for the club, but already he is a big miss in his absence: aside from the fact that he would undoubtedly have prevented at least one of the two late goals, the calmness that he exuded against Everton would have been highly welcome in this fixture. In the end, though, it didn’t matter: Liverpool clung on for victory, and nobody could say they didn’t deserve it.

It was football at its best: breathless, scintillating, enthralling and full of quality. Both sides were somewhat suspect at the back, but this only served to add to the spectacle. It can only be good for football that City’s unbeaten streak was taken from them in this fashion – the prospect of an ‘invincibles’ season was wrested forcefully away from them, rather than nicked by a parked bus and a lucky goal. At any rate, it was certainly good for Liverpool: the win is all the sweeter for Chelsea and Arsenal’s dropped points, and the top four picture is looking as good as it has all season. In the post-match elation, even the fifteen-point gap doesn’t feel completely unassailable! Realistically, the title charge may have to wait for next season: on today’s evidence, though, Liverpool’s rivals better sit up and take notice of them when it comes to the next campaign. 

- Folow me on Twitter @JamesMartin013

No Kane or Lukaku: New Year, Same Strategy

The halfway mark in the season has come and gone, and there is still no sign of Kane or Lukaku in my fantasy team. Even more significantly, the first double gameweek – featuring Tottenham, no less – has passed without any particular incident. Frankly, this is a minor miracle: while managers flocked in their hundreds of thousands to give Kane the triple-captaincy, I doubled up on the Tottenham defence, got in Alli, and hid behind the sofa. The somewhat unfortunate withdrawal of Sanchez after 58 minutes in the first game and the Obiang wonder-strike in the second prevented a good week from being great, but a leap of around 150,000 places was more than I dared to hope for going into the gameweek. As it stands, Chicken Tikka MoSalah sits inside the top 400,000 for the first time since gameweek 4. Not something to write home about, perhaps, but enough to further validate the strategy - and apparently enough to warrant a blog post to the internet at large.

Of course, this upturn in fortunes is largely down to the wholly unconvincing form of Romelu Lukaku. After an annoyingly prolific start, the United frontman has managed just two goals in his last eight; he was also forced to sit out all but thirteen minutes of the two most recent games, following a concussion suffered early on against Southampton. Despite this slump, he is still owned by nearly a quarter of all players: £11.3 million is a very significant chunk of the budget to be taken up by somebody offering such average returns, and conversely a very significant saving to invest elsewhere for those who have opted against him. In my team, the money is probably best viewed as funding investment in Kevin De Bruyne – this is somewhat arbitrary, in that he is one of a number of ‘premium’ players in the squad alongside Morata, Salah and Sterling, but Morata is essentially a Kane alternative and of the three premium midfielders De Bruyne is the principle differential from those who have opted for the big guns up front. His high starting price, combined with a natural inclination of many fantasy managers towards wingers rather than central playmakers, has kept the Belgian’s ownership well below that of the other two; he is even owned by fewer managers than Lukaku, despite outscoring his compatriot to the tune of around forty points. This has been a big part of my recent progress under the no Kane/Lukaku strategy.

As expected, the ‘no Kane’ limb of the idea is the one causing the more problems. I may have got through the double gameweek unscathed, but this did come on the back of consecutive hattricks for the English marksman – Burnley and Southampton were on the receiving end, but the real victim was my fantasy team. The striker’s ownership is only a little shy of 50%, so in the blink of an eye almost half of managers had a seventeen-point headstart on me for two weeks running. This is before his popularity as a captain pick is factored into the equation. There was some consolation in the fact that people who were giving Kane the armband were not going for Salah, so his returns of 10 and 9 respectively kept my head above water; the performances of Firmino and the inspired selection of Ederson, who kept two clean sheets and saved a penalty, also prevented calamity. Nonetheless, another strong showing from Kane in the double gameweek would have brought my season to a grinding halt – Alli’s squandering of the first chance laid on by the striker, only to tap in the rebound, was nothing short of heroic. Such slices of luck cannot be relied upon to keep Harry down forever, though: normal service will likely be resumed before long, and when it does I need to be able to rely on my alternative.

As has been the case throughout the season, it is this part of the team that is proving the hardest to nail down. Firmino has been a near-permanent fixture in the second striker slot, and has been a great success, but the truly premium forward has yet to properly pay off for me. Aguero, Jesus, Lacazette and Morata have all taken stints in the role: it recently occurred to me that any one of these would have done at least a decent job had I just picked one and stuck with them, but with the chopping and changing I’ve probably managed to lose out on points. With that in mind, I decided to give Morata a proper run in my team – this could hardly have been worse-timed, as he picked up a knock and then proceeded to showcase some truly horrific form over the next two fixtures. However, the underlying statistics show that he should start finding the back of the net again soon – the plan going forward is to stand firm in the face of his tumbling price for at least the next couple of gameweeks, and re-assess from there if he is still struggling. He has a nice run of fixtures on the horizon, so with any luck he will be able to recapture some of the returns he was putting up at the start of the season.

Morata woes aside, though, there really isn’t much ground for complaint. The big savings from eschewing Kane and Lukaku have generally been invested on premium options that are delivering at similar or better rates, and even most of the budget punts have paid off to some extent – Loftus-Cheek has posted some handy numbers, and I’ve definitely made worse rogue picks than Demarai Gray. There is only one further thought to add – agreeing to stick to this strategy at the start of the season has thrown up an interesting benefit that I simply hadn’t envisaged. Quite apart from the personnel involved, a self-imposed rule against tinkering with a particular aspect of the team has saved me points simply by preventing me from jumping on short-term trends a week too late. Without the rule, Kane would almost certainly have come in for the double gameweek only to blank; Firmino would likely have been in and out a lot too, and the erratic nature of his returns mean it would have been very plausible to own him for significant periods but miss his points altogether. Even if the self-imposed Kane ban is relaxed for next season, I will certainly continue to heed its lessons about not tinkering too heavily.

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    -Follow me on Twitter @JamesMartin013

Liverpool 1-1 Everton: Post-Match Analysis

Despite playing some of their worst football of the season, Liverpool nonetheless dominated an Everton side who had come to Anfield with no attacking intent whatsoever. The visitors are entitled to do this, of course, but it also wasn’t a particularly accomplished defensive display; Liverpool let them off the hook by lobbing cross after cross into the box instead of attempting to pick apart the holes in the back line, and were ultimately punished for only managing to score once. Calvert-Lewin dived for a late penalty after Lovren had got too tight to him, meaning Everton came away with a point from one of the poorest-quality derbies in living memory.

Jurgen Klopp raised some eyebrows by continuing his policy of mass rotation. The variation of personnel is not in itself a problem – it helps to prevent injuries building up over a busy period, and Klopp has some good squad players at his disposal. However, the changes for this game made it near-inevitable that the style of play would also alter. So it was: Milner and Henderson continually shifted the ball out wide, where Robertson and Gomez were on hand to swing hopeful crosses in towards Dominic Solanke. This is not a criticism of any of them – indeed, Joe Gomez put in yet another exceptional performance – but it must be asked what Klopp expected to happen when fielding all of these players together. He did Everton’s job for them: the quality was dragged right down, and Allardyce’s tactic of shoving everyone behind the ball and just launching it clear when they won it back was made at least partially effective when it should have been ripped to shreds.

This was exemplified by the manner in which Liverpool did make a breakthrough – it was a moment of pure quality, not a high ball into the penalty area. Mo Salah provided it: he swivelled past his man, jinked inside another and whipped the ball sumptuously into the top corner. It was a piece of individual genius, further cementing Salah’s status as signing of the summer and instant fan favourite. However, he was often the only one trying these things. Milner and Henderson are hardly notorious for driving at defenders; Solanke is pretty good with his feet, but his stock in trade is holding the ball up then passing it back to someone else. Again, the fault lies on the team selection – the sheer exploitability of Everton’s back line, as exemplified by Salah’s humiliation of Cuco Martina, was left largely untapped because of the type of players sent out by Klopp. To make such a call in the derby is criminal if you fail to deliver the result.

Of course, not all the fault lies with the manager. Sadio Mane must also take a significant proportion of the blame. Just after Salah had netted the opener, the Senegalese winger found himself through on the keeper with men over to his right – instead of teeing up the tap-in he went for goal himself, skewing it wide and wasting a golden opportunity. Had the team gone in at two up, it would surely have been game over, particularly given Everton’s ineptitude going forward. As it was, the margin remained at one goal – Allardyce’s side still weren’t really threatening for most of the second half, but nor did Liverpool look like adding a second. It was more of the same in terms of style, and to be frank it didn’t feel like watching Liverpool: the monotony of ‘shift wide, cross, repeat’ was extremely frustrating, and there was always a nagging doubt that the failure to actually get at the defence and add a second would end up costing us if something went wrong at the back. So it was: Dejan Lovren got far too tight to Calvert-Lewin, who chucked himself to the ground upon feeling contact and won himself a penalty. It was a clever dive, but a dive nonetheless – the referee can thus join Klopp, Mane and Lovren on the list of reasons why the team somehow failed to take all three points. To add insult to injury, it was Wayne Rooney of all people who smashed the penalty home: it left fans asking how their team could have possibly let this happen.

On another day, the referee wouldn’t have pointed to the spot and the questions about team selection would be subject to much less scrutiny. However, the result doesn’t change the fact that the team that was put out produced some pretty unpleasant and ineffective football for much of the 90 minutes – the domination stemmed from Everton’s determination to contribute nothing going forward, not from any inherent quality in the hosts’ play. It is not something that many fans can be eager to see repeated: Liverpool play some of the best attacking football in Europe, so to decide to shelve that for a week and instead punt balls at a target man is inexplicable. In a derby match, it is nigh-on unforgivable. Again, it is not the rotation that is the issue – it is the change in style to which it led. Fortunately, the next game is just around the corner; it would surely have made more sense to rest the players in this West Brom clash rather than the derby, but it does at least give Klopp and the team a chance to immediately bounce back.

- Follow me on Twitter @JamesMartin013

Liverpool 7-0 Spartak Moscow: Reds Rampage Through to Knockouts

Liverpool went into their final group stage game knowing that a win would see them progress as group winners, regardless of results elsewhere. This feat has eluded the team since 2008, a staggering nine years ago – it was imperative, therefore, that Klopp’s men got the job done. They delivered in the most emphatic way imaginable: Spartak became the second team to be hit for seven during the campaign, and Liverpool broke the record for the most goals scored by an English team in a Champions League group stage on their way to booking a place in the last sixteen.

After a few weeks of rotation here and there in the front line, Klopp finally treated the fans to the full compliment of attacking talent. The quadruple threat of Salah, Mane, Firmimo and Coutinho would be enough to blow away better teams than Spartak; the Russians were helpless in the face of the onslaught. Philippe Coutinho opened the scoring after just four minutes. Mo Salah’s movement immediately caused panic at the back, and he was hauled down while trying to reach Coutinho’s pass. The Brazilian stepped up to take the spot kick, and converted it with supreme coolness – replays revealed that he didn’t look at the ball once during his run-up, keeping his eyes on the goal and sending the goalkeeper the wrong way. 

There was no looking back in the game either. Liverpool were playing very nicely, undoubtedly aided by the huge pockets of space left open by the Spartak defence – at times it was like an exhibition game, as the attackers put on a show for the Anfield faithful. The second goal came after fifteen minutes; a delightful passage of passing brought the ball to the feet of Firmino, who calmly and selflessly shifted the ball across goal for Coutinho to slot home his second of the night. A third was added just minutes later. Firmino took this one for himself, slamming the ball emphatically home with the outside of his right boot after Mane’s effort fell to him in the box.

Mane had chances of his own in the first half, but it was not until the start of the second period that he managed to get his name on the scoresheet. He did so in supreme style, scoring arguably the pick of the bunch. Milner, who had come on for an injured Alberto Moreno, delivered a lovely cross to the far post which was met sumptuously by Mane – he volleyed it venomously past the Spartak keeper, who was once again a helpless observer. Three minutes later, it was five. Philippe Coutinho jinked round multiple defenders with ease before curling one goalwards; it found its way in via a big deflection, making Coutinho only the third ever Liverpool player to net a Champions League hattrick. It was a truly remarkable performance, particularly on the back of his goal and three assists at the weekend: it is not difficult to see why FSG were so desperate to keep him at Anfield over the summer. Fresh rumours are inevitably beginning to heat up as January approaches – at the moment, however, it is difficult to see why Coutinho would be particularly eager to leave the hottest attack in Europe.

This is particularly true given his strong relationship with the other forwards: Mane, Salah and compatriot Firmino. There appears to be a genuine camaraderie there; each wants the others to succeed, and all of them share the common goal of bringing success for the team. None of them seem too fussed about who gets on the scoresheet, just as long as the goals come; the resulting linkup is astounding at times, and has led to some truly beautiful attacking football. The talent does not stop at these four players, either. Firmino was replaced by Sturridge with about twenty minutes to play, and the Englishman made his mark almost instantly. He worked some space for himself on the right-hand side of the pitch, before squaring the ball for Mane – the Senegalese international showed great inventiveness to turn the ball home from an awkward position, and Liverpool had six.

The referee seemingly felt sorry for Spartak Moscow at this point, and so denied Sturridge a second assist in as many minutes by refusing to award a fairly clear penalty after the striker nicked in ahead of the keeper. This was not enough to stop the rampant reds. Salah ended his one-game drought five minutes from time – Milner delivered another nice delivery from the left, and the Egyptian showed great composure in the box to buy some time before firing it in. In another act of kindness, the officials added no time on at the end; it was only this that stopped Liverpool equalling or bettering their own record of eight Champions League goals in a single game.

The performance will undoubtedly give Liverpool great confidence going into the draw on Monday – their first-place finish leaves them best-placed to avoid a tough draw, but they will feel as though they can beat anyone in their current attacking form. With the likes of Real Madrid, Juventus and Bayern Munich all possible opponents, this may well be put to the test; the constant question mark is of course the defence, but going forward, at least, there is no reason not to believe that Liverpool can’t go toe-to-toe with Europe’s elite. Before they do this, however, there is a derby to look forward to: Sam Allardyce cannot be relishing the prospect of that fixture right now. Teams are rightly scared of us again: regardless of what pundits might have been saying earlier in the season, Liverpool are undoubtedly a team moving in the right direction.

- Follow me on Twitter @JamesMartin013