No Kane, No Lukaku, No Regrets?

Well, I made it. Thirty-eight whole gameweeks with no Kane or Lukaku anywhere to be seen in my fantasy team. Not only that, it went pretty well – a final overall rank of 115,189th is not to be sniffed at, although it was disappointing not to sneak into the top 100k. The big question, of course, is whether this relative success was because of the enforced absence of two of the biggest hitters in the game or in spite of it.

The numbers show that the lack of Kane, perhaps predictably, hit the hardest. He finished the season as the highest-scoring forward in the game, and the third-highest player overall: given the sheer volume of other fantasy teams in which he appeared, a good week for the Spurs frontman almost always proved a significant setback to my progress. However, crucially, he was not all that far ahead of much cheaper options – Firmino proved to be a more than adequate alternative for an initial 8.5 million, while Jamie Vardy also got within 40 points of Kane. To put it another way, Kane’s advantage over this pair was less than a point per week; this all adds up over the course of a season, but for an outlay of four million more than it cost to acquire either of the other two, it is clear that the value lay with the cheaper options. The point is even more emphatic in relation to Lukaku, who was outscored by both of these cheaper strikers, as well as Sergio Aguero. This clearly suggests that the two most premium forwards were viable but not essential options, and this was arguably borne out by my respectable finish without them.

However, this is reductive for two reasons. Firstly, it assumes the ability to quickly determine who will be able to outstrip Kane and Lukaku up front in terms of value. In reality, this was one of my greatest problems in the first couple of months of the season. Vardy and Firmino hardly came out of the blue in terms of goal-scoring prowess, and indeed the Brazilian made it into my team from the start, but it takes a brave man to shun all of the more expensive options – in my hunt for a frontman who could truly serve as a like-for-like Kane or Lukaku replacement, I went through options including Jesus, Morata, Aguero and Lacazette at an alarming pace. Each hit their stride just as I had given up on them, as followers of early entries to this series will be aware. It is all very well rejecting Kane on the basis that he will not provide the best points-to-cost ratio over the course of a campaign, but this does not capture the reason why he is such a popular pick. The sheer consistency of his returns is what warrants the steep price tag: there is little danger that he will be a high-cost complete flop, which is exactly what the alternative big names proved to be when they appeared in my team. It was only when I abandoned these premium strikers in favour of the mid-tier options, favouring big investment in the midfield, that I truly started to move up the table.

Secondly, and on a related note, saving money on Kane and Lukaku has no inherent value. The additional money in the bank must be spent wisely, not only on alternative striker options but throughout the team. Again, this was a balancing act that it took a while to get right – a September rank below 4.5 millionth was not solely down to bad luck! It is all very well notionally banking seven million by selecting strikers other than the two I chose to avoid, but when this is lavishly splashed on premium defenders who are continually returning blanks this is not so much an achievement as it is stupidity. This was partially down to my defective strategy in terms of where it is usually wise to invest heavily, but it is also an inherent flaw in avoiding the traditional ‘reliable’ options: it is only once trends have genuinely begun to emerge that it starts to become apparent where the ‘smart money’ should be spent. It very much felt as though I just had to hunker down for the first few weeks, hoping that some of my near-blind punts would come off while waiting for something solid upon which to base my buys.

Eventually, I settled upon a ‘middle-loading’ strategy. Many players had come around to this by the end of the season, but the fact that I did not have serious money tied up in attack allowed me to get on it sooner – by the end of the campaign, my team included Sterling, Alli, Eriksen and Salah. De Bruyne was also a regular for much of the run-in. Aside from Salah, these all had ownership that was far from astronomical; price tags that for Kane and Lukaku owners proved prohibitive were positively affordable in my system, and so I profited off the strong returns from these premium midfielders more than most. There was a sustained period where De Bruyne’s returns alone dwarfed those of Kane and Lukaku almost every week. This meant big gains. Even Salah, owned by essentially any active player who wasn’t a masochist, proved more beneficial to me than he did to others because of my strategy; he was a shoe-in for the captain’s armband almost every week, while other players were tempted away by a nice fixture for Kane, or by a renewed purple patch for Lukaku. Of course, on occasion, one or both of these two did outscore Salah. It was a rarity, however, and the Egyptian’s record points tally for any FPL season illustrates that one won’t go too far wrong by repeatedly captaining him.

On balance, then, it is probably fair to say that rejecting both Kane and Lukaku out of hand probably worked in my favour. However, this was contingent on a variety of factors that are far from guaranteed; I managed to at least pick one of the two best mid-tier strikers as a replacement right from the start, and in Salah a genuinely elite player emerged who could pale the significance of contributions from the Spurs and United men. As such, I would struggle to recommend actively writing off players who are known to be very good as a genuine strategy, but then again that was never really the point – rather this experiment has shown that there is cause to truly stop and weigh things up before mindlessly splashing the cash on a big name just because ‘everyone will have him’. Certainly, these findings have shaped how I will approach next season: I intend to start off with some of the ‘safer’ big names, amongst which Salah now finds himself, before branching out into potentially better-value options once enough time has passed to see where that value truly lies.

- @JamesMartin013

No Kane, No Lukaku: The Home Straight

Ah, the international break. An FPL player’s nightmare, but an FPL blogger’s dream. Plenty of spare time in which to reflect upon the game, sites that need to bulk out their content and a bored audience who would be willing to read essentially anything fantasy-related. All of this makes it the perfect time to return with another ‘no Kane, no Lukaku’ update.

For those who have not been following this mini-series, the premise is that I will go the whole season without bringing in either Kane or Lukaku, the two players considered by many to be must-haves at the start of the campaign. The league is now reaching the business end, and so far I have stayed true to my word – many a Kane goal-fest has burned me, and on occasion Lukaku has punished his non-owners, but on the whole things have gone surprisingly well. Better than most of my previous seasons, in fact. My overall rank has recently broken the 100k mark, which is by all accounts a handy position to be in as we enter the final seven gameweeks. A significant reason for this is Mo Salah. He would be a hero even without the fantasy points he has showered down upon me, as he has fired my beloved Liverpool to a new level, but this extra plus point has elevated him to god status. Of course, anyone with any sense has the Egyptian at this point – captaining him, however, was far from a foregone conclusion until quite recently. The temptation of Kane proved too strong for many of the managers who had the English marksman; this paid dividends for them on occasion, but the sheer consistency of Salah’s returns have ensured that my captain has done well for weeks on end.

 

This brings us on to the most significant recent development as far as the strategy is concerned. I refer to Harry Kane’s injury. On one hand, it represents great news: for the foreseeable future, there will be no more watching Spurs from behind the sofa, and the one player always responsible for pegging back my progress in mini-leagues is out of the picture. However, if anything, the drawbacks are more significant. Kane owners are scrambling to sell, and with no obvious like-for-like replacements their budget is being spread more evenly across the squad. This means a lot of my differentials are getting snapped up, leaving me with little room to make ground on rivals. The price rises are nice – Firmino is now a staggering 1.3 million more than when I bought him - but they don’t directly translate to points. Meanwhile, those who are looking to swap Kane for something resembling an equivalent are bound to turn to Lukaku. The Belgian is re-finding his form, and Manchester United have some very nice fixtures coming up: many more FPL opponents are ready to take advantage of this now he has taken the ‘Kane’ slot in so many squads. In other words, it will simply be the United scores that I dread to check rather than those of Tottenham. It will be far from straightforward retaining a place in the top hundred-thousand during this run-in.

This is particularly true given the double gameweeks that have to be navigated. In terms of chips, I am in relatively good shape – I opted to use the free hit to deal with blank gameweek 31, and was rewarded with a 105-point haul, but the other chips remain available to use. The squad has been honed for many weeks to ensure that all fifteen are getting regular minutes, and that most have a double gameweek: the bench boost or the triple captain are thus ripe to be played in gameweek 34, with the remaining chip being saved for the next double gameweek in 37. Salah’s lack of a double poses something of a dilemma: anyone would think twice about not giving him the armband, and given that he has been so integral in allowing me to remain competitive without Kane it would be tough to give the triple captaincy to anybody else. However, other big hitters who will have an extra game in the week are hard to ignore – chief amongst these is the newly-acquired Heung-Min Son, who is leading the line for Spurs during Kane's absence. I currently sit second in both of my main mini-leagues: getting the triple captaincy right (or wrong) could make or break the entire season. On the plus side, Kane no longer being an option for my opponents, unless they choose to gamble on his late-season fitness, is something of a relief.   

A big perk of the strategy has been the ready availability of funds to invest in the midfield, where there have been multiple premium options producing high points returns. For the final few weeks, I have taken a punt on Mkhitaryan. As mentioned, I have ground to make up in my mini-leagues: his decent form of late, Arsenal’s seemingly endless capacity to start performing well when they no longer have anything to play for and their very kind fixture list made this a gamble I was eager to take. There is the risk of Europa League-induced rotation, which made the ineligible Aubameyang the more tempting option in many ways, but Vardy’s similarly nice run-in made me reluctant to sell him. Thus, my hopes are pinned on the Armenian. In my eagerness to execute this plan, I made my transfers before realising that the international break was imminent – there is now a nervous wait to see whether he or Son get injured while playing for their countries. This was foolish, but the strategy on the whole has proved surprisingly sensible: with any luck, I’ll be able to limp over the line with an overall rank with which I can be pleased.

- @JamesMartin013

No Kane or Lukaku: New Year, Same Strategy

The halfway mark in the season has come and gone, and there is still no sign of Kane or Lukaku in my fantasy team. Even more significantly, the first double gameweek – featuring Tottenham, no less – has passed without any particular incident. Frankly, this is a minor miracle: while managers flocked in their hundreds of thousands to give Kane the triple-captaincy, I doubled up on the Tottenham defence, got in Alli, and hid behind the sofa. The somewhat unfortunate withdrawal of Sanchez after 58 minutes in the first game and the Obiang wonder-strike in the second prevented a good week from being great, but a leap of around 150,000 places was more than I dared to hope for going into the gameweek. As it stands, Chicken Tikka MoSalah sits inside the top 400,000 for the first time since gameweek 4. Not something to write home about, perhaps, but enough to further validate the strategy - and apparently enough to warrant a blog post to the internet at large.

Of course, this upturn in fortunes is largely down to the wholly unconvincing form of Romelu Lukaku. After an annoyingly prolific start, the United frontman has managed just two goals in his last eight; he was also forced to sit out all but thirteen minutes of the two most recent games, following a concussion suffered early on against Southampton. Despite this slump, he is still owned by nearly a quarter of all players: £11.3 million is a very significant chunk of the budget to be taken up by somebody offering such average returns, and conversely a very significant saving to invest elsewhere for those who have opted against him. In my team, the money is probably best viewed as funding investment in Kevin De Bruyne – this is somewhat arbitrary, in that he is one of a number of ‘premium’ players in the squad alongside Morata, Salah and Sterling, but Morata is essentially a Kane alternative and of the three premium midfielders De Bruyne is the principle differential from those who have opted for the big guns up front. His high starting price, combined with a natural inclination of many fantasy managers towards wingers rather than central playmakers, has kept the Belgian’s ownership well below that of the other two; he is even owned by fewer managers than Lukaku, despite outscoring his compatriot to the tune of around forty points. This has been a big part of my recent progress under the no Kane/Lukaku strategy.

As expected, the ‘no Kane’ limb of the idea is the one causing the more problems. I may have got through the double gameweek unscathed, but this did come on the back of consecutive hattricks for the English marksman – Burnley and Southampton were on the receiving end, but the real victim was my fantasy team. The striker’s ownership is only a little shy of 50%, so in the blink of an eye almost half of managers had a seventeen-point headstart on me for two weeks running. This is before his popularity as a captain pick is factored into the equation. There was some consolation in the fact that people who were giving Kane the armband were not going for Salah, so his returns of 10 and 9 respectively kept my head above water; the performances of Firmino and the inspired selection of Ederson, who kept two clean sheets and saved a penalty, also prevented calamity. Nonetheless, another strong showing from Kane in the double gameweek would have brought my season to a grinding halt – Alli’s squandering of the first chance laid on by the striker, only to tap in the rebound, was nothing short of heroic. Such slices of luck cannot be relied upon to keep Harry down forever, though: normal service will likely be resumed before long, and when it does I need to be able to rely on my alternative.

As has been the case throughout the season, it is this part of the team that is proving the hardest to nail down. Firmino has been a near-permanent fixture in the second striker slot, and has been a great success, but the truly premium forward has yet to properly pay off for me. Aguero, Jesus, Lacazette and Morata have all taken stints in the role: it recently occurred to me that any one of these would have done at least a decent job had I just picked one and stuck with them, but with the chopping and changing I’ve probably managed to lose out on points. With that in mind, I decided to give Morata a proper run in my team – this could hardly have been worse-timed, as he picked up a knock and then proceeded to showcase some truly horrific form over the next two fixtures. However, the underlying statistics show that he should start finding the back of the net again soon – the plan going forward is to stand firm in the face of his tumbling price for at least the next couple of gameweeks, and re-assess from there if he is still struggling. He has a nice run of fixtures on the horizon, so with any luck he will be able to recapture some of the returns he was putting up at the start of the season.

Morata woes aside, though, there really isn’t much ground for complaint. The big savings from eschewing Kane and Lukaku have generally been invested on premium options that are delivering at similar or better rates, and even most of the budget punts have paid off to some extent – Loftus-Cheek has posted some handy numbers, and I’ve definitely made worse rogue picks than Demarai Gray. There is only one further thought to add – agreeing to stick to this strategy at the start of the season has thrown up an interesting benefit that I simply hadn’t envisaged. Quite apart from the personnel involved, a self-imposed rule against tinkering with a particular aspect of the team has saved me points simply by preventing me from jumping on short-term trends a week too late. Without the rule, Kane would almost certainly have come in for the double gameweek only to blank; Firmino would likely have been in and out a lot too, and the erratic nature of his returns mean it would have been very plausible to own him for significant periods but miss his points altogether. Even if the self-imposed Kane ban is relaxed for next season, I will certainly continue to heed its lessons about not tinkering too heavily.

-   

    -Follow me on Twitter @JamesMartin013

No Kane, No Lukaku, No Problems? 12-Week Update

In a season preview piece for fantasyyirma.com, I challenged the orthodoxy that at least one of Kane and Lukaku – preferably both - was a must-have in any fantasy team. The savings that could be invested elsewhere, I argued, were such that the lost points on the two big-name strikers could be recouped from other players in other positions. Despite being asked by literally nobody to persist with this experiment, my stubbornness dictated that I would be going as much of the season as I could bear without purchasing either of these two elite forwards; twelve gameweeks in, with my early wildcard a distant memory, Kane and Lukaku remain conspicuous only by their absence.

How has this strategy been holding up? Somewhat inevitably, it has led to frankly ridiculous swings in ranking from week to week. The success in any given gameweek is dictated just as much by Kane and Lukaku as it is by the eleven I have selected; a blank by one or both of them sends me shooting up the rankings, but the pair of them hitting their stride simultaneously spells disaster. This is evidenced by the mammoth discrepancies in my monthly positions. August saw Kane’s obligatory barren spell – combined with some prolific scoring from my alternative investments, notably the Liverpool trio of Mane, Salah and Firmino, this fired me up to 16,118^th for the month. At this point, I may or may not have been guilty of some fairly smug tweets. September punished me cruelly for this; it got off to an inauspicious start when I handed the armband to Mane only for him to get sent off, and it didn’t get much better from there. Kane and Lukaku ascended to the top of the race for the golden boot, Liverpool stalled badly, and Wenger went through a phase of inexplicable reluctance to give Lacazette consistent minutes: this utterly derailed my progress, resulting in a final monthly ranking of 4,678,952^nd. I didn’t know there were that many FPL players. October was slightly less disastrous, although still far from successful. Salah’s consistent returns and a couple of good Jesus captaincies only sometimes sufficed to keep pace with the duo I was now firmly committed not to employ; a monthly finish around the 2.8 million mark was technically progress, but hardly a ringing endorsement of my strategy.

Naturally, I headed into November an extremely disheartened manager. Flashbacks to my first proper season of the game, where I stubbornly refused to accept that Yaya Toure would continue to score so well, haunted my every waking moment; history was repeating itself on an even more gratuitously self-destructive scale, and I was already drafting an optimistic claim against Fantasy YIRMA for lost mini-league earnings. However, so far, it has been a kind month – the pendulum has swung firmly back in my favour, as Kane has stalled badly and my alternatives have finally stepped up in a way that had been disappointingly lacking since August. I sit inside the top 320k for the month, an effort that has sufficed to finally drag me back inside the overall top million. De Bruyne and Jesus deserve honourable mentions, but it is Mohamed Salah that takes the bulk of the credit; without Kane and Lukaku to tempt me I have captained him in every game this month, and he has rewarded me without fail.

This gives some idea of the volatility of a team without Kane or Lukaku. Certainly I have seen enough to substantiate a claim that shunning the pair of them is a defensible option; it magnifies the rewards when those picked as their differential alternatives deliver, leading to huge jumps up the leaderboards. However, for it to pan out as the best strategy across the course of the season, the alternative picks have to be consistently on the money. Kane and Lukaku will inevitably score in most weeks – this is why conventional wisdom dictates they are necessities – and when this coincides with quieter games from other premium options it can lead to staggeringly poor gameweeks. If they fall back-to-back, it can be crippling. The likelihood of this is increased by the lack of nailed-on starting strikers in other top teams; Jesus and Lacazette have both been left out one too many times to please somebody on my strategy. Firmino has been a regular for Liverpool – ultimately his lower price has been reflected in his returns, however, and his steady numbers are far from ideal when he is used as a Kane or Lukaku replacement. The natural alternative is Morata; he picked up an injury at a time where I really needed him to deliver, but this was bad luck as much as anything else and he probably represents one of the better attacking options from here on in.

The issues with the bold strategy are exacerbated by the emergence of relatively consistent scorers from the budget category, such as Watford’s exciting talent Richarlison. It is a price bracket that Kane and Lukaku owners inevitably have to turn to at some point; when there are options there that post numbers in keeping with the premium midfielders who are taking up my saved money, it poses a serious problem. Over the course of the full campaign, it seems likely that De Bruyne, Mane and others in a similar bracket will pull firmly away – they will need to do so by a substantial margin, however, if the pouring of the Kane-and-Lukaku savings into my midfield is going to pay off. The only upshot of the emergence of such options from the perspective of my strategy is that I too can avail myself of these players, and consequently take a punt on one of the aforementioned expensive strikers with question marks over game time. It is less of a tragedy when Jesus only gets twenty minutes if I know that the entirety of the rest of my team, as opposed to just the premium options, are capable of picking up the slack; nonetheless, on the whole, the success of a number of budget midfielders makes the strategy harder to execute.  

In summary, life without Kane and Lukaku is utter chaos. It does not lend itself to consistency, nor to middle-of-the-road gameweeks: things either go excellently or terribly, and the way it swings is just as dependent on those who have not been selected as it is on those who have been chosen. There is promise in the strategy, and a better manager than me could have deployed it to greater effect by doing a more successful job of consistently selecting the high-scoring alternative premium investments, but it is nevertheless undeniable that failing to pick Kane and Lukaku is bound to lead to something of an uphill battle at times. It is a battle I enjoy, however, and you can be sure that I will blindly plough on with it regardless of how many more times I plumb new rankings depths. 

Kane and Lukaku: Can You Afford Not to Go Big?

At 12.5 and 11.5 million respectively, Kane and Lukaku represent two of the most premium forward options in this year’s FPL. The price tags are undoubtedly warranted, in that both have consistently scored freely over the past few seasons and both a

re now spearheading the attacks of teams in the top six. However, the prices clearly represent a huge investment – just getting one of them consumes over a tenth of the budget, and to have both requires almost a quarter of the allotted hundred million to go on just two players. Given that there are more viable mid-range forwards this season than in the past couple of years, is it actually essential to get at least one of these elite strikers into your team?

The answer actually lies in the midfield. This is where the savings from passing on Kane and Lukaku can be invested: my side currently features neither of the two strikers, and this has enabled me to field Alli, Salah and Mane together. All three of these players found the back of the net in Gameweek 1, meaning I was able to start off the campaign with a respectable 74-point return. The question thus becomes a relatively simple one: can three premium midfielders outscore both Kane and Lukaku? In the alternative, can two premium midfielders outscore one of Kane or Lukaku? This second query is not quite as black and white as it appears, in that by somewhat decimating the rest of the squad it is possible to shoehorn in one of Kane and Lukaku as well as two premium midfielders, making the battle for value a straight shootout between a premium midfielder and Kane or Lukaku. However, putting to one side this radical approach to balancing the budget, these are the questions that need to be addressed. At this stage in the season, they obviously cannot be answered definitively – those who do answer it correctly will have the key to success this year.

 

For the time being, my answer is that the premium midfielders are the way forward. Kane is not the only man at Spurs with a proven record of FPL returns – Alli has established himself as the consummate goal-scoring midfielder, and Eriksen has been returning good assist numbers for some time now. Both continued this trend in GW1, with the Dane notching two assists and Alli scoring the opener. Lukaku’s new club, too, showed signs of offering great midfield value: Mkhitaryan is cheap in the premium bracket at 8.0, and he returned two assists against West Ham. The clincher, however, is Liverpool. Salah and Mane are both playing in a front three where goals and assists are shared pretty much evenly – and there are plenty to go around. Just as Spurs picked up where they left off, Liverpool showcased all of their classic strengths and weaknesses on the opening weekend. The defence was shambolic as ever, but the attack looked even more lethal than last season; this is quite some feat given that the team is still waiting on the reintroduction of a creative midfielder into the middle of the park, be that Coutinho (transfer speculation) or Lallana (actual injury). The fluid, rapid front three are clearly capable of creating a lot of goals for themselves, but when normal service is resumed from the middle of the park the attacking returns will simply go through the roof. Coupled with Mkhitaryan or one of the Spurs midfielders, the dynamic duo of Salah and Mane in the FPL team is worth the sacrifice of abandoning Kane and Lukaku.

This is particularly true given the wealth of budget alternatives to Kane and Lukaku. Last year saw a real dearth of viable forward options, but this time around there seems to be a lot more choice. Just a small step down from the two mercurial strikers brings top players such as Lacazette and Jesus into the mix: the new Arsenal man scored after just two minutes and looked dangerous throughout, and Jesus blanked but was unlucky not to have about four. Further down the price list, great value may well be offered by the likes of Firmino, Benteke, Hernandez, Rashford or, based on Gameweek 1, maybe Mounie! None of these are likely to match Kane or Lukaku, but they should all be capable of providing steady returns which, coupled with the points of the premium midfielders, will be enough to make up for the absence of the Spurs and United forwards. Firmino got off to a very strong start, and is even more appealing now he seems to be on penalty duty. Benteke had a couple of good chances, and will surely start taking those kinds of opportunities before long. Rashford recorded an assist, and looked dangerous throughout with his direct running. Mounie, of course, shone on his debut with a brace to secure an unlikely 3-0 win for Huddersfield. Hernandez was disappointingly anonymous, but the strength of the opposition means that he can be cut some slack – West Ham will have to offer a lot more going forward in future matches if he is to remain a viable option, however.  Nonetheless, the point clearly stands that Kane and Lukaku do not stand alone as forwards who will all but guarantee decent returns: neither have reached 13/14 Suarez levels of must-have, and as such their cheaper understudies may be the way to go.

It is worth noting that even if heavy investment in the midfield does indeed turn out to be the better option, opting against Kane and Lukaku will make for a very long season. Gameweek 1 gave me a stark taste of what I’m letting myself in for: Spurs and Manchester United both played on the Sunday, so following a strong showing on Saturday I was left to watch on powerlessly as the two big hitters went out to determine if I would finish the week in the top 100k or outside the top million. In the end, one delivered and one did not –  Kane’s blank ensured I remained comfortably above the average, but Lukaku’s brace meant my ranking took a beating in the last game of the weekend. Cheering on blanks for two of the most prolific forwards in the league is not a fun existence – I may cave before long for the sake of my mental wellbeing! For now, though, it is exciting to see whether my sizeable risk will pay off: early signs are promising enough for me to conclude by cautiously suggesting that it is possible to get by without Kane or Lukaku.

-          James Martin

Follow me on Twitter @JamesMartin013

Everton 1-1 Liverpool: Draw Not Enough For Rodgers

A fairly good performance from Liverpool in the Merseyside derby was not enough for Brendan Rodgers to keep his job. Depending on whom you believed before the match it may have been the case that his fate was already sealed anyway; regardless, the outcome is that Rodgers has parted ways with the club. His side showed more fight than in recent weeks, perhaps one last rally around the manager who nearly brought us glory in 2013/14 or, more likely, because of the intensity of the footballing rivalry between Liverpool and Everton, but this didn’t prove enough for a win as once again a defensive error meant that we couldn’t come away with more than a point.

A highlight of the early performance was Liverpool’s attacking pressing. This has been slowly returning to our game after a period of absence where we looked lacklustre, impotent and frankly uninterested – today, the pressure high up the pitch meant that the tempo remained high for much of the match. Danny Ings epitomised this: since coming into the side he has been one of the brightest players, and today was no exception. This positive approach meant that it was Liverpool, the visitors, who started on the front foot – Sturridge looked very lively, dancing and jinking in and out of defenders, linking up quite nicely with Ings. Everyone was getting involved; in a memorable attack, Lucas fed a clever pass through to Skrtel who tried to pick out Sturridge in the middle. The wing backs in particular showed talent going forward. Moreno continued his excellent vein of form, making things happen with his positive running style, and Clyne also looked dangerous when venturing forwards.

As is often the way with such an onerous style of play, the pressing began to fade after about half an hour. Everton still weren’t being allowed to dictate the play, with Lucas playing an important shielding role in front of the defence, but the game became more even. Chances became fewer and further between: a lovely little one-two between Coutinho and Milner nearly resulted in a brilliant goal, but Howard saved smartly at his near post. As is often the way, it was at this quieter phase that the goals came. Having wasted roughly six corners already, Liverpool capitalised on a momentary lapse from the Everton defence as an in-swinging corner was met by an unmarked Ings six yards from goal. It was no more than he deserved, and Liverpool too had been fairly good value for their lead. Sadly, however, it did not last long. A minute into added time at the end of the half, Emre Can made an error in defence that was punished clinically by Lukaku – his awful clearance hit Skrtel, and the Belgian was on hand to smash it home. This type of goal is becoming all too commonplace, and cannot have helped Rodgers’s cause. In truth it isn’t really his fault, and it highlights the fact that a new manager won’t immediately fix everything – perhaps his insistence on passing it out from the back has led to the rise of defensive errors, but most of the blame in this respect must fall at the feet of the players.

They didn’t cover themselves in glory in the second half either. The momentum seriously dropped off, and Everton were given the upper hand – a lack of sufficient pressure meant that the defence was called upon more and more. Mignolet was called upon, and showcased his strengths with two immensely good reaction stops – Naismith was denied from very close range before a drive from McCarthy, seen late due to Galloway standing in the keeper’s eyeline, was turned around the post. He gets some abuse for his occasionally nervy distribution and claiming of the ball, but what he does he does very well: he is a shot-stopper. He is potentially one of the players that will benefit most from a new manager: if he isn’t required to play the ball as much, he could truly be one of our greatest assets.

The second half did not have the intensity of the first, with both sides tiring. Liverpool managed to win a few more corners, but were extremely wasteful with them – the goal should not mask the fact that corners are something we really need to work on. Skrtel’s seven headed goals in 2013/14 were a not insignificant part of our success; certainly we could have had a lot more goals this year if that sort of form could be repeated. A small blessing was that we were at least beating the first man today, but for all the good it did we might as well not have bothered – goal aside, nobody in the middle even threatened to score.

In the end, the draw was probably a fair result. Everton came back strong towards the end, but on the balance of play neither side can complain about coming away with a point. A better performance than many we have seen recently, but not a turning point – certainly not enough to justify a change of heart from FSG over Rodgers. There are definitely positives, however – hopefully these, combined with the lift that a new manager will bring, will combine to bring about some better, top four standard form.

-James Martin

Follow me on Twitter @JamesMartin013

Preview and Predictions: Merseyside Derby

The day is almost upon us. The first derby of the season against our fierce rivals, Everton, is just around the corner. Other than perhaps Manchester United clashes, this fixture has no equal. Unlike in recent years, this derby is a very important match in terms of league positioning. Everton will move up to join 2^nd with a win, and a victory for Liverpool will put them top. If possible then, the stakes have been raised even higher. Who will get the all-important victory?

Somewhat predictably, I’m going to say Liverpool. Of course I’m biased (I’m the first to admit that), but when you look at the two squads Liverpool’s is clearly superior. Luis Suarez and Daniel Sturridge will surely wreak havoc in the Everton defence, as they are simply a class above the likes of Distin and Jagielka. Also, in midfield, Everton are likely to be overwhelmed by Philippe Coutinho’s technical ability, as well as the sheer passion and determination of Gerrard and Henderson. As long as we are able to put in the type of performance that we did against Fulham, we shouldn’t have too much trouble.

That said, Everton is by no means to be written off. They have a very solid goalkeeper in Tim Howard, and Suarez and Sturridge will have to be on their game to beat him. Chelsea loanee Romelu Lukaku also has the potential to cause our defence some trouble. Also, with the game likely to be somewhat highly charged, the physicality of Gareth Barry could come in useful. However, as they are coming into this game on the back of a 0-0 draw with bottom-placed club Crystal Palace, I think Liverpool fans are justified in feeling quietly confident.

There is also the issue of fatigue from international games. The majority of the Everton squad have enjoyed a week’s break from football, and will go into the derby refreshed. In contrast, many of the Liverpool players are coming into the game battered and bruised from international duty, including the talismanic duo dubbed ‘SAS’- Suarez and Sturridge. Sturridge was forced to play the full 90 minutes against Germany despite carrying an injury, whilst Suarez played against Jordan on Wednesday and had to borrow Liverpool owner John Henry’s private jet in order to get back to England more quickly! It isn’t what you’d call ideal preparation for such a big game, and it may prove costly.

The thing I’m most looking forward to about the game is the battle between Leighton Baines and Glen Johnson. They are both classy full-backs, and I’m sure they will look to get at each other throughout the game; this will almost certainly prove to be a good watch. I’m also interested to see how our centre-backs (whoever they might be) manage Lukaku. Sakho has looked great for the last few games, in particular against Arsenal, but he hasn’t come up against anyone as physical as Lukaku thus far. Hopefully he will be able to handle him, but, quality player that he is, I’m sure Lukaku will cause him some problems.

Finally, to the prediction. On paper, I think that Liverpool have the much better team. However, with a lot of the players tired from international duty, combined with the fact that Everton, specifically Lukaku, poses such a physical threat going forward, I think it will be a close game. I reckon it will finish 2-1 to Liverpool, with Suarez scoring a brace and Lukaku getting one for Everton. However, seeing as I’ve only predicted the outcome of a Liverpool game correctly about 4 times, I wouldn’t set much store by that! At the end of the day I’m just hoping for a good game, and, of course, a win for the reds.

-James Martin

Follow me on Twitter @JamesMartin013

West Brom vs Liverpool – My Thoughts

On Saturday 18^th August 2012, Liverpool played their opening match of the season against West Bromwich Albion. They lost 3-0, with goals from Zoltan Gera, Peter Odemwingie (penalty) and Romelu Lukaku. On the face of it, there are very few positives to be taken from this games, and lots of negatives. This is partly true, however there was more to the game than the result might suggest.

The first thing to mention is that in the first half, the game was not at all as one-sided as the scoreline suggests. In fact, Liverpool created more attacks than West Brom in the opening 45 minutes. Their build up play was extremely good (mostly), and they crafted a lot of good chances. However, the problem was once again their finishing. I have had to say this hundreds of times, but Liverpool are still not showing the clinical finishing required from a club that wants to compete for a top 4 position. If this cannot be improved, then I fear that hopes that LFC might break into the Champions League again this season are unrealistic. Despite this, it shouldn’t be forgotten that lots of attacks were made, which is a very good sign.

Unfortunately, Liverpool could not continue creating attacks in the second half. Zoltan Gera had scored a stunning volley at the end of the first half, and it seemed that took the life out of LFC. However, this was not the main reason for Liverpool’s decline in the second half. By far the biggest contributing factor to Liverpool’s poor second half was some dubious refereeing by Phil Dowd. Early into the half, Shane Long managed to break through the Liverpool defence. Daniel Agger attempted to get back at him, and Dowd deemed that he had used excessive and illegal levels of force to do so, and gave West Brom a penalty. This in itself was a little controversial, as the incident was right on the edge of the area, but that was nothing compared to what happened next. The referee sent off Agger. Now I am a massive LFC fan, but I am also reasonable, and accept that Agger fouled Shane Long. However, it was certainly not a foul worthy of a red card. Although Pepe Reina managed to save the subsequent penalty, with LFC only having 10 men and having to chase the game they were as good as beaten.

As if this wasn’t enough, Dowd then decided to award West Brom another penalty! Now I may be seeing this differently to everyone else, but to me it seemed that Shane Long came up from behind Skrtel, tackled him, and then fell over. When I saw the referee pointing to the penalty spot I thought it must be some kind of joke. Odemwingie stepped up to take this one, and unlike Long he managed to bury his penalty. This left Liverpool two goals down. There was nothing controversial about the third goal, which was simply a good header from Lukaku. However, Liverpool would probably have been able to clear it had they had 11 players on the pitch.

To sum up, it is hard to draw any meaningful conclusions from this game. Liverpool may well have come back in the second half, but the match was ruined by some shocking refereeing decisions. However, Liverpool will need to show some better finishing in subsequent games if they want to get results.