No Kane, No Lukaku, No Regrets?

Well, I made it. Thirty-eight whole gameweeks with no Kane or Lukaku anywhere to be seen in my fantasy team. Not only that, it went pretty well – a final overall rank of 115,189th is not to be sniffed at, although it was disappointing not to sneak into the top 100k. The big question, of course, is whether this relative success was because of the enforced absence of two of the biggest hitters in the game or in spite of it.

The numbers show that the lack of Kane, perhaps predictably, hit the hardest. He finished the season as the highest-scoring forward in the game, and the third-highest player overall: given the sheer volume of other fantasy teams in which he appeared, a good week for the Spurs frontman almost always proved a significant setback to my progress. However, crucially, he was not all that far ahead of much cheaper options – Firmino proved to be a more than adequate alternative for an initial 8.5 million, while Jamie Vardy also got within 40 points of Kane. To put it another way, Kane’s advantage over this pair was less than a point per week; this all adds up over the course of a season, but for an outlay of four million more than it cost to acquire either of the other two, it is clear that the value lay with the cheaper options. The point is even more emphatic in relation to Lukaku, who was outscored by both of these cheaper strikers, as well as Sergio Aguero. This clearly suggests that the two most premium forwards were viable but not essential options, and this was arguably borne out by my respectable finish without them.

However, this is reductive for two reasons. Firstly, it assumes the ability to quickly determine who will be able to outstrip Kane and Lukaku up front in terms of value. In reality, this was one of my greatest problems in the first couple of months of the season. Vardy and Firmino hardly came out of the blue in terms of goal-scoring prowess, and indeed the Brazilian made it into my team from the start, but it takes a brave man to shun all of the more expensive options – in my hunt for a frontman who could truly serve as a like-for-like Kane or Lukaku replacement, I went through options including Jesus, Morata, Aguero and Lacazette at an alarming pace. Each hit their stride just as I had given up on them, as followers of early entries to this series will be aware. It is all very well rejecting Kane on the basis that he will not provide the best points-to-cost ratio over the course of a campaign, but this does not capture the reason why he is such a popular pick. The sheer consistency of his returns is what warrants the steep price tag: there is little danger that he will be a high-cost complete flop, which is exactly what the alternative big names proved to be when they appeared in my team. It was only when I abandoned these premium strikers in favour of the mid-tier options, favouring big investment in the midfield, that I truly started to move up the table.

Secondly, and on a related note, saving money on Kane and Lukaku has no inherent value. The additional money in the bank must be spent wisely, not only on alternative striker options but throughout the team. Again, this was a balancing act that it took a while to get right – a September rank below 4.5 millionth was not solely down to bad luck! It is all very well notionally banking seven million by selecting strikers other than the two I chose to avoid, but when this is lavishly splashed on premium defenders who are continually returning blanks this is not so much an achievement as it is stupidity. This was partially down to my defective strategy in terms of where it is usually wise to invest heavily, but it is also an inherent flaw in avoiding the traditional ‘reliable’ options: it is only once trends have genuinely begun to emerge that it starts to become apparent where the ‘smart money’ should be spent. It very much felt as though I just had to hunker down for the first few weeks, hoping that some of my near-blind punts would come off while waiting for something solid upon which to base my buys.

Eventually, I settled upon a ‘middle-loading’ strategy. Many players had come around to this by the end of the season, but the fact that I did not have serious money tied up in attack allowed me to get on it sooner – by the end of the campaign, my team included Sterling, Alli, Eriksen and Salah. De Bruyne was also a regular for much of the run-in. Aside from Salah, these all had ownership that was far from astronomical; price tags that for Kane and Lukaku owners proved prohibitive were positively affordable in my system, and so I profited off the strong returns from these premium midfielders more than most. There was a sustained period where De Bruyne’s returns alone dwarfed those of Kane and Lukaku almost every week. This meant big gains. Even Salah, owned by essentially any active player who wasn’t a masochist, proved more beneficial to me than he did to others because of my strategy; he was a shoe-in for the captain’s armband almost every week, while other players were tempted away by a nice fixture for Kane, or by a renewed purple patch for Lukaku. Of course, on occasion, one or both of these two did outscore Salah. It was a rarity, however, and the Egyptian’s record points tally for any FPL season illustrates that one won’t go too far wrong by repeatedly captaining him.

On balance, then, it is probably fair to say that rejecting both Kane and Lukaku out of hand probably worked in my favour. However, this was contingent on a variety of factors that are far from guaranteed; I managed to at least pick one of the two best mid-tier strikers as a replacement right from the start, and in Salah a genuinely elite player emerged who could pale the significance of contributions from the Spurs and United men. As such, I would struggle to recommend actively writing off players who are known to be very good as a genuine strategy, but then again that was never really the point – rather this experiment has shown that there is cause to truly stop and weigh things up before mindlessly splashing the cash on a big name just because ‘everyone will have him’. Certainly, these findings have shaped how I will approach next season: I intend to start off with some of the ‘safer’ big names, amongst which Salah now finds himself, before branching out into potentially better-value options once enough time has passed to see where that value truly lies.

- @JamesMartin013

No Kane, No Lukaku, No Problems? 12-Week Update

In a season preview piece for fantasyyirma.com, I challenged the orthodoxy that at least one of Kane and Lukaku – preferably both - was a must-have in any fantasy team. The savings that could be invested elsewhere, I argued, were such that the lost points on the two big-name strikers could be recouped from other players in other positions. Despite being asked by literally nobody to persist with this experiment, my stubbornness dictated that I would be going as much of the season as I could bear without purchasing either of these two elite forwards; twelve gameweeks in, with my early wildcard a distant memory, Kane and Lukaku remain conspicuous only by their absence.

How has this strategy been holding up? Somewhat inevitably, it has led to frankly ridiculous swings in ranking from week to week. The success in any given gameweek is dictated just as much by Kane and Lukaku as it is by the eleven I have selected; a blank by one or both of them sends me shooting up the rankings, but the pair of them hitting their stride simultaneously spells disaster. This is evidenced by the mammoth discrepancies in my monthly positions. August saw Kane’s obligatory barren spell – combined with some prolific scoring from my alternative investments, notably the Liverpool trio of Mane, Salah and Firmino, this fired me up to 16,118^th for the month. At this point, I may or may not have been guilty of some fairly smug tweets. September punished me cruelly for this; it got off to an inauspicious start when I handed the armband to Mane only for him to get sent off, and it didn’t get much better from there. Kane and Lukaku ascended to the top of the race for the golden boot, Liverpool stalled badly, and Wenger went through a phase of inexplicable reluctance to give Lacazette consistent minutes: this utterly derailed my progress, resulting in a final monthly ranking of 4,678,952^nd. I didn’t know there were that many FPL players. October was slightly less disastrous, although still far from successful. Salah’s consistent returns and a couple of good Jesus captaincies only sometimes sufficed to keep pace with the duo I was now firmly committed not to employ; a monthly finish around the 2.8 million mark was technically progress, but hardly a ringing endorsement of my strategy.

Naturally, I headed into November an extremely disheartened manager. Flashbacks to my first proper season of the game, where I stubbornly refused to accept that Yaya Toure would continue to score so well, haunted my every waking moment; history was repeating itself on an even more gratuitously self-destructive scale, and I was already drafting an optimistic claim against Fantasy YIRMA for lost mini-league earnings. However, so far, it has been a kind month – the pendulum has swung firmly back in my favour, as Kane has stalled badly and my alternatives have finally stepped up in a way that had been disappointingly lacking since August. I sit inside the top 320k for the month, an effort that has sufficed to finally drag me back inside the overall top million. De Bruyne and Jesus deserve honourable mentions, but it is Mohamed Salah that takes the bulk of the credit; without Kane and Lukaku to tempt me I have captained him in every game this month, and he has rewarded me without fail.

This gives some idea of the volatility of a team without Kane or Lukaku. Certainly I have seen enough to substantiate a claim that shunning the pair of them is a defensible option; it magnifies the rewards when those picked as their differential alternatives deliver, leading to huge jumps up the leaderboards. However, for it to pan out as the best strategy across the course of the season, the alternative picks have to be consistently on the money. Kane and Lukaku will inevitably score in most weeks – this is why conventional wisdom dictates they are necessities – and when this coincides with quieter games from other premium options it can lead to staggeringly poor gameweeks. If they fall back-to-back, it can be crippling. The likelihood of this is increased by the lack of nailed-on starting strikers in other top teams; Jesus and Lacazette have both been left out one too many times to please somebody on my strategy. Firmino has been a regular for Liverpool – ultimately his lower price has been reflected in his returns, however, and his steady numbers are far from ideal when he is used as a Kane or Lukaku replacement. The natural alternative is Morata; he picked up an injury at a time where I really needed him to deliver, but this was bad luck as much as anything else and he probably represents one of the better attacking options from here on in.

The issues with the bold strategy are exacerbated by the emergence of relatively consistent scorers from the budget category, such as Watford’s exciting talent Richarlison. It is a price bracket that Kane and Lukaku owners inevitably have to turn to at some point; when there are options there that post numbers in keeping with the premium midfielders who are taking up my saved money, it poses a serious problem. Over the course of the full campaign, it seems likely that De Bruyne, Mane and others in a similar bracket will pull firmly away – they will need to do so by a substantial margin, however, if the pouring of the Kane-and-Lukaku savings into my midfield is going to pay off. The only upshot of the emergence of such options from the perspective of my strategy is that I too can avail myself of these players, and consequently take a punt on one of the aforementioned expensive strikers with question marks over game time. It is less of a tragedy when Jesus only gets twenty minutes if I know that the entirety of the rest of my team, as opposed to just the premium options, are capable of picking up the slack; nonetheless, on the whole, the success of a number of budget midfielders makes the strategy harder to execute.  

In summary, life without Kane and Lukaku is utter chaos. It does not lend itself to consistency, nor to middle-of-the-road gameweeks: things either go excellently or terribly, and the way it swings is just as dependent on those who have not been selected as it is on those who have been chosen. There is promise in the strategy, and a better manager than me could have deployed it to greater effect by doing a more successful job of consistently selecting the high-scoring alternative premium investments, but it is nevertheless undeniable that failing to pick Kane and Lukaku is bound to lead to something of an uphill battle at times. It is a battle I enjoy, however, and you can be sure that I will blindly plough on with it regardless of how many more times I plumb new rankings depths. 

Liverpool 0-0 Manchester United: Tactical Analysis

A familiar fault reared its head as Liverpool once again failed to capitalise on their opportunities and consequently squandered the chance to win. Nonetheless, there was plenty to be pleased with in the performance: Mourinho’s typically deep line was unable to prevent the creation of a couple of big opportunities, and United’s erstwhile prolific attack never really looked like troubling the hosts’ back line. These plus points are both endemic of a change of tactical approach that has the potential to make Liverpool unstoppable.

The new tactic is in many ways a subtle change, but it could serve to dramatically improve results. Out of possession, things are much the same: Klopp has his players pressing high, looking to hustle the opposition into a mistake. This was very effective against United, who were forced to simply put the ball out of play on multiple occasions. The change has come in the approach when Liverpool do have the ball. Previously, attacks have been as frenetic as the turnovers in possession through which they were instigated; in other words, the plan was to nick the ball and then descend upon the goal as quickly and directly as possible. This worked to destructive effect against teams who left gaps to be exploited at the point of turnover, but opponents were increasingly opting to sit very deep against Liverpool so as to negate this risk. In response to this, Klopp has got his team playing much more patiently in the build-up phase. The only way to consistently break low blocks is intricate passing sequences – recently, these have become a much more regular feature. The idea is that teams can no longer feel safe sitting back: if they do so, the likes of Coutinho and Firmino will find a way through with their playmaking talents. This is good in and of itself, but what gives it the potential to be so effective is the fact that the attack still possesses the capability to launch explosive counter-attacks. Teams will be in trouble when they step up and in trouble when they sit deep – once the players are fully adjusted to the new method, there will be no simple way of stopping them.

In some ways, it is strange that this tweak to the system hasn’t come sooner: patient passing when in possession and aggressive pressing off-the-ball are a natural mix. When the opponent is only rarely afforded the ball, their natural tendency is to take more risks when they get it – they wish to capitalise on the fact they are actually in possession by turning that possession into a scoring chance. This risk-taking leaves them more vulnerable to the press: this allows a gap to be exploited at the turnover if it exists, and if it does not then the side playing the possession-based game nonetheless have the ball back. Thus the system serves as a potential way of creating chances, but also as a way of limiting chances for the opponent: given Liverpool’s defensive woes of late, any help they can derive from their tactical setup is welcome. To put it simply, the opposition cannot score if they don’t have the ball – the principle is basic, but the ramifications are significant. All the while Liverpool are moving the ball around, looking for an opening, they are simultaneously relieving the defence of all pressure; they may be called upon as ball-players, but this is one aspect of the game in which Matip and Lovren are fairly accomplished. As such, the new system being employed is working towards improving things at both ends of the pitch.

Why, then, did Liverpool still fail to pick up a win against United? There are two principle reasons. The first is that the adaptation to the new style is a work in progress: the team cannot be expected to transform into Guardiola’s Barcelona overnight, and the incision and fluidity of the passing therefore still left something to be desired at times. After a full season of being stumped by the deep line, it would be unrealistic to demand that the players immediately work out how to consistently unlock it. The second reason is that, even when the chances were cleverly carved out, they were not taken. Emre Can and Joel Matip missed the biggest opportunities of the match, with Mo Salah also failing to turn home from close range. This has been a big problem of late, and can also in part be attributed to Klopp’s tweak of the system. Under the old methods, nearly all of the chances created were 2v1s (or similar) by virtue of the way in which they came about: everyone charged forwards off the back of the press, overwhelming defences and creating easy scoring situations where the ball could just be passed home. Now, whilst some of the chances being made are still clear-cut, the goalkeeper cannot be taken out of the equation completely: faced with beating him, the players are struggling. Admittedly David De Gea is something of an exceptional case – he is one of the best keepers in the world, and his stop to deny Matip was extraordinary. Nonetheless, the problem applies more generally: Liverpool have to get better at burying their chances if they wish to reap the full rewards that the change in style has to offer.

All in all, though, the draw was more encouraging than it was frustrating. There are clear signs that Klopp’s amended tactical vision is starting to be understood and implemented, and when this comes to full fruition it will be fantastic.

-   - Follow me on Twitter @JamesMartin013

Kane and Lukaku: Can You Afford Not to Go Big?

At 12.5 and 11.5 million respectively, Kane and Lukaku represent two of the most premium forward options in this year’s FPL. The price tags are undoubtedly warranted, in that both have consistently scored freely over the past few seasons and both a

re now spearheading the attacks of teams in the top six. However, the prices clearly represent a huge investment – just getting one of them consumes over a tenth of the budget, and to have both requires almost a quarter of the allotted hundred million to go on just two players. Given that there are more viable mid-range forwards this season than in the past couple of years, is it actually essential to get at least one of these elite strikers into your team?

The answer actually lies in the midfield. This is where the savings from passing on Kane and Lukaku can be invested: my side currently features neither of the two strikers, and this has enabled me to field Alli, Salah and Mane together. All three of these players found the back of the net in Gameweek 1, meaning I was able to start off the campaign with a respectable 74-point return. The question thus becomes a relatively simple one: can three premium midfielders outscore both Kane and Lukaku? In the alternative, can two premium midfielders outscore one of Kane or Lukaku? This second query is not quite as black and white as it appears, in that by somewhat decimating the rest of the squad it is possible to shoehorn in one of Kane and Lukaku as well as two premium midfielders, making the battle for value a straight shootout between a premium midfielder and Kane or Lukaku. However, putting to one side this radical approach to balancing the budget, these are the questions that need to be addressed. At this stage in the season, they obviously cannot be answered definitively – those who do answer it correctly will have the key to success this year.

 

For the time being, my answer is that the premium midfielders are the way forward. Kane is not the only man at Spurs with a proven record of FPL returns – Alli has established himself as the consummate goal-scoring midfielder, and Eriksen has been returning good assist numbers for some time now. Both continued this trend in GW1, with the Dane notching two assists and Alli scoring the opener. Lukaku’s new club, too, showed signs of offering great midfield value: Mkhitaryan is cheap in the premium bracket at 8.0, and he returned two assists against West Ham. The clincher, however, is Liverpool. Salah and Mane are both playing in a front three where goals and assists are shared pretty much evenly – and there are plenty to go around. Just as Spurs picked up where they left off, Liverpool showcased all of their classic strengths and weaknesses on the opening weekend. The defence was shambolic as ever, but the attack looked even more lethal than last season; this is quite some feat given that the team is still waiting on the reintroduction of a creative midfielder into the middle of the park, be that Coutinho (transfer speculation) or Lallana (actual injury). The fluid, rapid front three are clearly capable of creating a lot of goals for themselves, but when normal service is resumed from the middle of the park the attacking returns will simply go through the roof. Coupled with Mkhitaryan or one of the Spurs midfielders, the dynamic duo of Salah and Mane in the FPL team is worth the sacrifice of abandoning Kane and Lukaku.

This is particularly true given the wealth of budget alternatives to Kane and Lukaku. Last year saw a real dearth of viable forward options, but this time around there seems to be a lot more choice. Just a small step down from the two mercurial strikers brings top players such as Lacazette and Jesus into the mix: the new Arsenal man scored after just two minutes and looked dangerous throughout, and Jesus blanked but was unlucky not to have about four. Further down the price list, great value may well be offered by the likes of Firmino, Benteke, Hernandez, Rashford or, based on Gameweek 1, maybe Mounie! None of these are likely to match Kane or Lukaku, but they should all be capable of providing steady returns which, coupled with the points of the premium midfielders, will be enough to make up for the absence of the Spurs and United forwards. Firmino got off to a very strong start, and is even more appealing now he seems to be on penalty duty. Benteke had a couple of good chances, and will surely start taking those kinds of opportunities before long. Rashford recorded an assist, and looked dangerous throughout with his direct running. Mounie, of course, shone on his debut with a brace to secure an unlikely 3-0 win for Huddersfield. Hernandez was disappointingly anonymous, but the strength of the opposition means that he can be cut some slack – West Ham will have to offer a lot more going forward in future matches if he is to remain a viable option, however.  Nonetheless, the point clearly stands that Kane and Lukaku do not stand alone as forwards who will all but guarantee decent returns: neither have reached 13/14 Suarez levels of must-have, and as such their cheaper understudies may be the way to go.

It is worth noting that even if heavy investment in the midfield does indeed turn out to be the better option, opting against Kane and Lukaku will make for a very long season. Gameweek 1 gave me a stark taste of what I’m letting myself in for: Spurs and Manchester United both played on the Sunday, so following a strong showing on Saturday I was left to watch on powerlessly as the two big hitters went out to determine if I would finish the week in the top 100k or outside the top million. In the end, one delivered and one did not –  Kane’s blank ensured I remained comfortably above the average, but Lukaku’s brace meant my ranking took a beating in the last game of the weekend. Cheering on blanks for two of the most prolific forwards in the league is not a fun existence – I may cave before long for the sake of my mental wellbeing! For now, though, it is exciting to see whether my sizeable risk will pay off: early signs are promising enough for me to conclude by cautiously suggesting that it is possible to get by without Kane or Lukaku.

-          James Martin

Follow me on Twitter @JamesMartin013

Manchester United 1-1 Liverpool: Post-Match Analysis

Liverpool had to settle for a point in one of the most significant clashes with their biggest rivals in recent years. The home side needed a win to gain ground on the top four, and Liverpool made the trip to Old Trafford knowing that three points would keep them in touch with league leaders Chelsea. In this respect neither team came away satisfied; given the way the match went, however, United fans can be thrilled with a point. Klopp’s side were superior for much of the match, but were undone by a late Ibrahimovic goal.

It was apparent from the outset that Liverpool had shown up determined to put in a more energetic performance than the lacklustre showing at Southampton midweek. The pressing, which in truth has not been particularly impressive over the last few weeks, was well and truly back: Origi was perhaps a little brainless in his charging down of the ball at times, but United nonetheless felt the pressure. That said, Mourinho’s men probably enjoyed the best of the first fifteen minutes – once they had settled down and accustomed themselves to the pressing, they managed to put Liverpool on the back foot. The game remained open, however, and Firmino was unlucky not to make the breakthrough after robbing Phil Jones of the ball on the edge of the United box. The disappointment did not last long – Pogba handled the ball from the resulting corner, and Milner dispatched the penalty excellently.

This was the first in a series of errors from Pogba, who frankly looked out of his depth. He should have been sent off minutes later for essentially putting Henderson in a headlock, but apparently the penalty signalled the first and last decision the referee would rule in our favour. Somehow United ended up with a free kick following the fracas, which forced an excellent stop out of Simon Mignolet. This was one of three vital saves in the first half – he has excelled this season, and was faultless once again today. This can partially be attributed to the competition from Karius, who also put in a strong display in his most recent appearance, but it also worth noting that the Belgian has always been a world class shot-stopper. Other areas of his game let him down, but there are few keepers in the league who perform the fundamental duty of the goalkeeper better than he does. Sadly, Mignolet’s contribution was not quite enough to see the team over the line with the three points. Wijnaldum, who aside from his finishing put in a very strong performance, spurned two very good opportunities to double the lead in the second half; this was eventually punished with less than ten minutes to play, as Ibrahimovic forced the ball over the line following a scramble. To add insult to injury, Valencia was offside during the build-up: this adds to the rapidly-increasing list of recent Old Trafford goals that should not have stood.

The case could also be made that Rooney should have been sent off. He was beaten to the ball by Milner, and in his follow-through planted his studs on to the left-back’s ankle. It should certainly have been at the very least a yellow, but even this was not produced – this was just another factor that added to a frustrating day. Still, perspective is definitely needed: a point away at Old Trafford is a good result, and would have been taken by a lot of fans before the game. Also, there was little wrong with the performance: it has to be accepted that sometimes in football things simply don’t go for you. Looking forward, Liverpool can be encouraged – nine times out of ten, Klopp’s men will be rewarded with a win for this kind of showing. A few people worthy of individual praise are Emre Can, Jordan Henderson and Trent Alexander-Arnold. Can was under immense scrutiny following some poor recent performances, but barely put a foot wrong. He tracked back well when needed, and provided a good option going forward. Henderson demonstrated exactly what the team have been missing in his absence – he was the heartbeat in terms of passes when on the ball, and provided cover when the team were out of possession. Alexander-Arnold was very much thrown in at the deep end with this game, following the injury to Clyne, and he can be very proud of how he handled the pressure. He dealt with Martial admirably, and also made a nuisance of himself going forward with some overlapping runs. A couple of his crosses left something to be desired, but it would be wholly unreasonable to expect him to come into a fixture of this magnitude at his age and be the complete full-back. It is fair to say that the youngster has an exciting future.

The seven-point gap to Chelsea is not, of course, ideal, but nor is it insurmountable. Provided Liverpool can prevent the gap from widening further before the two teams clash at the end of the month, the title is still very much to play for. If nothing else, the top four picture continues to look very promising – regardless of league position, it is clear that we are making steady progress under Klopp.
-James Martin
Follow me on Twitter @JamesMartin013

Liverpool 0-0 Manchester United: Post-Match Analysis

Despite having the bulk of possession, Liverpool were unable to break down a Manchester United side that had come to Anfield purely to defend. Mourinho essentially adopted a slightly less ambitious version of the game plan that saw Burnley take all three points off Klopp’s men earlier this season – the emphasis was firmly on defence, with seven or eight men routinely behind the ball. In fairness it was executed well, and Liverpool rarely threatened; they did manage two dangerous efforts, but both were saved excellently by De Gea. Manchester United looked even less likely to score than the hosts did, failing to spring any sort of counter-attacks despite seemingly being set up to do so: Zlatan Ibrahimović made a mess of their only real opportunity. On balance, 0-0 was probably a fair reflection on a drab match.

It was apparent from the outset that this was not going to be a game that lived up to the considerable hype. Indeed, given the gargantuan reputation of both sides, the lack of quality on display was astounding – loose touches, stray passes and poor decision-making abounded, culminating in an opening period full of scrappy turnovers of possession in the middle of the park. Henderson, who has been very good in the last few games, was particularly culpable in this respect. The visitors probably looked the least bad, but they were far from good: the only moments of anxiety for the Anfield faithful were caused by highly questionable decision-making from new signing Loris Karius, rather than any great attacking prowess on United’s part. Liverpool did pick up a little towards the end of the half, but could produce nothing better than a tame Firmino header straight at De Gea.

Any attacking impetus United had possessed in the first half vanished in the second. Liverpool dictated the game, dominating possession and probing the United defence to try and find gaps. This was of no use though, as an odd combination of lack of urgency and lack of composure meant that the home side could not find the breakthrough. The lack of urgency manifested itself in a failure, in the most part, to run at defenders and really stretch United’s back line. The exception to this would be Can, who drove the team forward a few times with powerful runs from deep. Can, however, was also one of the most culpable on the lack of composure front – he, along with others, wasted a few well-worked positions by taking on overly ambitious long-range strikes. Long shots do not have a high conversion percentage, and are not a sustainable method of triumphing over the low block; they can be excused from a specialist like Coutinho, who has demonstrated that there is some repeatability to his goals from range, but in general the best idea is to try and pass a way through. Indeed, the biggest opportunity of the game came from a lovely ball into the path of Can on the edge of the area. The German was unable to create space with his first touch, and consequently had to writhe past a couple of defenders before snatching a shot away, but it nonetheless forced an excellent save from De Gea.

The other major chance came from an aforementioned Coutinho long shot. It was a trademark move, cutting in from the left and curling it with his right foot towards the top right hand corner. David De Gea was equal to it, however, stretching to turn the ball past the post. Frustrating as this was for the hosts, on balance it was not a game that anybody deserved to win. One minor positive for Liverpool is that it was their first clean sheet of the season, although as Klopp hinted at in the post-match press conference this is something of a bittersweet achievement in the circumstances. Perhaps the bigger positive is that Manchester United felt the need to simply shut up shop – big teams fear us once more. This is not without cause: the 0-0 is a blip in an otherwise generally superb start to the season, and this result should not dent confidence. Not every team can defend as well as a Mourinho outfit, and with a nice run of fixtures on the horizon Klopp’s men will be hopeful of a return to free-scoring ways before long.
-James Martin
Follow me on Twitter @JamesMartin013 

Liverpool 2-1 QPR: Post-Match Thoughts

After a string of poor results stemming from even poorer performances, yesterday Liverpool finally managed to find themselves again. It wasn’t exactly a vintage display, but it was unrecognisable to the utter tripe we were forced to endure against Hull and, to a lesser extent, West Brom. This improvement was reflected in the final score – despite missing a penalty with the scores tied in the 80^th minute, Liverpool kept fighting and managed to come away as 2-1 victors.

The team sheet had a rather end-of-season look about it: Rodgers opted to return to the double-pivot of Henderson and Gerrard that was such a disappointment in the first half of the campaign, and Lambert was also given a start. As it happened, this worked rather well – Gerrard’s defensive weaknesses weren’t exploited at all by an underwhelming QPR, and Henderson was able to force the issue at times with some wonderful long balls that his central midfield partner would be proud of. Lambert, too, did very well. He put in what was surely his best performance in a Liverpool shirt, making some decent runs and linking up fairly well with the rest of the attack. It was he who created the opening goal: a lovely pull-back across the box was controlled exquisitely by Coutinho, who proceeded to use his second touch to curl the ball unerringly into the top corner.

From then on in it was total control for the hosts, and in truth they should have added more goals. Lallana got through on goal, but smashed it wide at the near post rather than aiming for the far post or squaring it to Sterling. At the time this seemed like the wrong choice, but having seen what happened a little later on maybe it was sensible not to trust Sterling with an open goal! Early in the second half the youngster was picked out by a glorious Henderson ball, but despite being just six yards from goal he was unable to keep his effort down. This summed up his post-Christmas form: ever since the contract saga begun, he’s contributed little more than Victor Moses managed in a Liverpool shirt. Obviously we all know that Sterling possesses immense quality, but if he cannot produce that consistently then he is in no position to hold the club to ransom. For me, if he doesn’t soften on wage demands and doesn’t round off the season with three absolutely world class performances, he can leave.

His miss became even more depressing when Liverpool were punished for their wastefulness by Leroy Fer. The visitors had barely created anything all game, but then Fer steered the ball home from a Joey Barton corner to level the game up. It looked like, despite the vastly improved performance, Liverpool’s severe problems in attack would come back to haunt them once more to continue what has been a torrid end to the season. However, just when all seemed lost, the man who has always been there for us when we need him stepped up.

And missed his spot kick.

Steven Gerrard will undoubtedly be gutted that he’s missed what could well be his last ever LFC penalty, particularly as it was in front of the Kop, but the captain did not waste time dwelling on his poor effort. After Onouha got sent off for a second bookable offence the reds began to totally dominate once more, and Gerrard grabbed the reward for this dominance with just minutes to go. Coutinho’s corner found the skipper, who towered above Barton and emphatically headed the ball beyond Green.

With United having lost their game against West Brom, there is an outside chance that this win could earn Liverpool more than pride. I’m not getting my hopes up – LFC’s run-in includes a trip to Chelsea, and even if they do win all of their games it is unlikely that the Red Devils will drop 4 points (realistically five due to goal difference) in three games. However, it does at least mean that we’ve kept the pressure on: if United do slip up horrendously, we need to be in a position to capitalise. That said, the best thing about this game was the performance – in all likelihood the season is over, but it is vital for confidence that we go out with a bang rather than a whimper.

-James Martin

Follow me on Twitter @JamesMartin013  

Liverpool 1-2 United: Post-Match Analysis

These are always the worst articles to write. We’ve lost to our bitter rivals. Not only that, we’ve lost by putting in a performance that was, at times, utterly abysmal. Add to that the injury picked up by Sturridge, the three match suspensions for both Skrtel and Gerrard and the fact that we now need a minor miracle to make the top four, and it’s fair to say that this match can be written off as an absolute disaster.

As with most derbies, the quality was poorer than we normally see. Passes were constantly going astray and both teams lacked any sort of fluidity in the early stages. It was Man United who were looking the less awful of the two sides though, and this played out when the visitors took the lead after just fourteen minutes. Ander Herrera played a lovely ball through to Mata, who finished very coolly indeed on his weaker foot. Liverpool fans could take minor solace in the fact that it was at least a good goal – it would have been even harder to stomach a Fellaini header from a long ball over the top.

Our miseries were compounded as the game went on. The first half went from poor to abysmal, and Liverpool looked utterly incapable of scoring. We only made one chance in the entire half – that said, it was a golden opportunity. Adam Lallana received a pull-back that gave him a clear shot on De Gea’s goal, but he placed it just wide. Other than that, the home fans had nothing to get off their seats about; following the rousing chorus of YNWA at the start of the game, the crowd noise rapidly (and, to be brutally honest, understandably) declined. Any hopes of a second half revival were quickly stifled – Gerrard, who had come on to replace Lallana, got himself sent off after just 38 seconds. Experienced he may be, but he showed all the composure of a 20 year old in his very first Liverpool-United clash. He needlessly stamped on Herrera in response to a hard challenge he had just been on the receiving end of, and left the referee no choice but to dismiss him. Admittedly you can’t really blame him for wanting to take his last chance to have a good stamp on one of the Mancs, but he hardly helped the team!

Sure enough, United were the next to score. Liverpool did at least look like they wanted the result in the second half, but the damage was already done. The second goal for the visitors came through Mata again – as with the first, it was an excellent goal. This one was a scissor kick: the ball came in behind him, and he improvised marvellously to put it into the far corner beyond Mignolet. The game was all but up by this point – with half an hour to go and one man less than their opponents, it was always going to be an uphill struggle for Liverpool. It was a testament to Rodgers’ beloved “character” and team spirit that we managed to pull a goal back – the players didn’t allow their heads to drop completely, and Sturridge emphatically rifled his strike in at the near post with twenty minutes to play. This was not enough to inspire an unlikely recovery, however – United looked the more likely to score the fourth goal of the game. They seemed as if they were about to do just that in the last few minutes when Can put in an awfully clumsy challenge in the box, gifting United a penalty. Rooney, however, could not beat Mignolet, who guessed the right way and made a fine stop.

I tend to try and end on some sort of positive note after the summary of the match events. Sadly, on this occasion, the immediate future is looking somewhat bleak. We are now five points adrift of fourth place and go into the Arsenal clash on the back of a demoralising loss – failure to win that one will absolutely kill any remaining hopes of a Champions League spot. It is starting to look inevitable that United will somehow make fourth, despite playing absolutely appallingly for most of the season. Of course, being a Liverpool fan is enough to have taught me that it’s never quite over, but Europa is looking like it’s on the cards for next season.

-James Martin

Follow me on Twitter @JamesMartin013

Swansea 0-1 Liverpool: Post-Match Analysis

Liverpool weathered the storm on a ghastly Monday evening in Wales, eventually coming out 1-0 winners after somehow keeping Swansea out despite a lacklustre first half performance. The winning goal was a rare slice of fortune: a clearance deflected off the shin of Jordan Henderson, and the ball looped over Fabianski and in. While not exactly a glorious victory, the win (amazingly, given our start to the season) leaves Liverpool just four points off second.

It was immediately apparent that we weren’t going to be treated to a vintage Liverpool performance. Swansea were playing a very effective pressing game, and this was prompting multiple errors from Liverpool players. We were sloppy in possession and Daniel Sturridge looked extremely isolated when we did get forward – it was one of the worst first half performances Liverpool have put in this season, and certainly the worst in 2015. It was Swansea creating all the chances, and had they not been so wasteful then they could have been two or three up at half time. Ki in particular wasted a good chance, heading tamely to Skrtel when presented with a golden opportunity just outside the six yard box. Mignolet must also take some credit – as he has done so regularly since his upturn in form, he bailed out our defence with a couple of exceptional stops.

Other than Mignolet, the only performance of note in the first half was Allen. He was the only outfield player who looked up for it, and made a couple of key tackles as well as multiple positive passes. Lallana was abysmal at wing back and only marginally more effective when moved to the centre, Can’s performance was summed up when he got totally destroyed by the skill of the prodigiously talented Neil Taylor and Sterling was largely ineffectual. Coutinho also struggled to influence the game, but that was largely thanks to the failure of his team-mates to create some space for him with their movement.

Still, somewhat predictably, the hosts weren’t able to keep up such a high press for the full 90 minutes. Around the 55 minute mark the Swans started to ease off a little but, and Liverpool were consequently allowed to play the more expansive, exciting football we’ve grown accustomed to in recent weeks. Sterling really came into the game, getting forward a lot from the wing back position he had taken from Lallana and demonstrating some nice skill at times. His final ball was lacking, with a couple of pull-backs only picking out a Swansea defender, but he did at least get us on to the front foot with a lot of positive running. Allen continued to dominate, playing some wonderful passes and maintaining a staggering work rate. Sturridge still didn’t look quite at the races, but in fairness it was his lovely piece of improvisation that led to the only goal of the match. He dummied a ball that had been intended forwards for him, allowing it to run through to Henderson. The stand-in captain (at least until Gerrard replaced Moreno a couple of minutes prior to the goal) then struck lucky, watching on as Amat’s attempted clearance struck his shin and looped over the keeper. 

Liverpool then had enough about them to see out the remaining minutes fairly comfortably. Indeed, they almost added a second: a quick counter attack led to the ball reaching Sturridge in the box, whose cheeky curling shot smacked the post. Fortunately it didn’t matter – the whistle went moments later, and Liverpool got the three points that moved them into within just four points of second place. After the abysmal start to the season, this is frankly mind-blowing. We could finish in the same position as last season. Let that sink in. Of course, there’s still a lot of work to do, but the fact we can even discuss the possibility shows what a turnaround there’s been at the club. We’ve closed the gap on City from a staggering seventeen points at the turn of the year to a meagre four now. Perhaps more importantly than this, we’re also only two points off United in fourth. We play them on Sunday in the knowledge that a win would move us into the Champions League positions. Hopefully we can put in a better performance than the one we saw last night, but ultimately all that matters is that we get the same end result: a win. If we can maintain our excellent form (five wins from our last five!), there’s no reason at all why a Champions League place, and possibly even as high as second, can’t be achieved. As well as being the key to Europe, a top four finish would be a solid foundation upon which to push on from for next season – hopefully next time out the squad will be able to fulfil their capabilities and launch another title challenge.

-James Martin

Follow me on Twitter @JamesMartin013

Liverpool 2-0 Burnley: Post-Match Thoughts

Liverpool continued their impressive run of form in yesterday's game against Burnley, coming out comfortable 2-0 winners. They looked in charge right from the outset, and goals from Henderson and Sturridge sealed the three points.

It was immediately apparent that Liverpool are the league's form side: straight from kick-off they were oozing confidence. One of the key differences from the start of the season is the pressing; be it Burnley or Man City, the reds aren't giving their opponents any time on the ball. This allows them to get on the front foot in matches immediately - Sturridge nearly scored within the first couple of minutes of this one, only to see his shot kept out by an exceptional stop from Heaton. Burnley looked dangerous on the counter occasionally, but it was Liverpool who looked by far the more likely to score. They did manage to make the breakthrough before half time: Henderson continued Liverpool's run of scoring screamers by smashing an emphatic half volley into the corner. It evoked memories of Gerrard and Olympiakos; indeed, it caused many fresh comparisons between the current and future captain.

These comparisons were only increased by Henderson's glorious assist for the second goal of the game midway through the second half. He whipped in a wonderful cross before Daniel Sturridge, who had endured an otherwise poor game, beat his man and headed home. It was a typically assured finish, and Liverpool fans will be hoping that it was the start of a return to full form for Sturridge. This put the match beyond doubt, and the hosts comfortably saw out the rest of the game.

It is worth noting that Dejan Lovren had an uncharacteristically solid game. While I still don't think that he'll be able to carve out much of a career for Liverpool, it's good that he's starting to prove himself as adequate backup. Coutinho, too, continued his magnificent form - he nearly netted yet another immense goal, curling one inches wide from what is fast becoming known as the Coutinho zone. In fact, everyone put in a decent shift - Mignolet perhaps looked a little shaky and Sturridge still looked off the pace, but on the whole it was a wonderful team performance.

The win saw us continue to pile the pressure on the teams above us; United's extremely lucky victory over Newcastle meant that we didn't gain on them, but if our form continues then it's only a matter of time. We play them just two games from now – if we can keep up this form then it seems not only possible but likely that we’ll be in the top four after that match. The “81 points” total that is being bandied about by fans is actually starting to look attainable: this is the total Liverpool would end up on if they won all of their remaining games. It is a points tally that has always been enough to secure at least fourth place (it is usually enough for second), and with only eight games to go the reds look capable of achieving it.
-James Martin

Follow me on Twitter @JamesMartin013

Man United 3-0 Liverpool: Post-Match Analysis

Getting knocked out of the Champions League in midweek was bad enough to beat out any of the Christmas cheer Liverpool fans might have been feeling, but today the pain was piled on courtesy of a big defeat from our fierce rivals. A combination of a shambolic defence, poor finishing and an absolute master class from David De Gea resulted in a humiliating final score of 3-0 to United.

The only fact that Liverpool fans can seek solace in is that the scoreline was not at all reflective of the game. For the first 10 minutes the reds (or yellows as they were for this game) were completely dominant, forcing multiple errors from the home sides defence with their high press. They were presented with a big chance to take the lead when Lallana played a lovely ball through to Sterling, but the 20 year-old’s effort wasn’t strong enough to beat De Gea. Almost immediately after this United launched their first real attack of the game, and Liverpool’s defence were instantly exposed. It was almost funny watching everyone floundering; Valencia embarrassed Allen and pulled it back to Rooney, whose run should have been tracked by Coutinho. Gerrard should also have been ensuring that Rooney didn’t get the room to shoot, but instead opted to watch from a safe distance as United’s captain blasted it home past Brad Jones, who was diving the wrong way. The WRONG WAY. If nothing else, playing Jones today may well have served to open fan’s eyes to the fact that Mignolet is the lesser of two evils when it comes to our goalkeeping options.

The contrast between the two keepers couldn’t have been more stark. De Gea was on fire, and rather than doing his utmost to get out of the way of the ball he turned his energies towards thwarting Sterling again to prevent Liverpool pulling level. Still, the signs were promising. We were making some good opportunities, and at just one down it looked likely that we’d be able to pull the game back and get at least a draw. However, with just five minutes to go until the break, Juan Mata doubled United’s lead. It was blatantly offside – Moreno’s step forward left Mata about 2 yards off when he headed in from close range, but the assistant clearly failed to spot the flick-on from Van Persie that carried the ball through to the Spaniard. This made the situation much bleaker, to the extent where it actually prompted Rodgers to make an early change for once. Sadly, the substitution was only half right. Bringing Balotelli on for the second half to partner Sterling was sensible, but Lallana shouldn’t have been replaced. He had been linking up well with Sterling; Coutinho should probably have been the one to make way.

Even so, Liverpool continued to look fairly good into the second half. Balotelli was playing fairly well, although he did isolate himself by needlessly drifting out wide on a couple of occasions. When he was in the middle, chances came his way – De Gea was on hand once again to push his powerful effort on to the woodwork. Sterling too had a huge opportunity to get a goal back; he picked off a weak back pass and looked to have rounded De Gea. However, he took one touch too many, allowing the United keeper to deny him once again. It clearly just wasn’t to be our day – nothing was getting past De Gea, and as usual pretty much everything was getting past our defence. It was no real surprise when United made it three; Lovren’s failure to complete a basic clearance presented the Red Devils with the opportunity, and this was made easier for Van Persie to take by Brad Jones being in a frankly bizarre position. A couple more excellent saves from De Gea meant that a game which Liverpool had dominated from an attacking point of view somehow ended 3-0.

The only man more worried than the fans at the moment is Brendan Rodgers. He must be well aware that his job is in jeopardy; the failure to get to the Champions League group stage followed by this heavy defeat to the Mancs are the latest blows in a series of disappointments this season. Although summer signings Balotelli, Moreno, Markovic and Lallana all looked good today, the continued playing of Gerrard over Can and the abysmal performances of Dejan Lovren have called Rodgers’s judgement into serious question. The league table speaks for itself: 18 points off top and 7 off the top 4 is not even close to good enough. Rodgers has been given enough time to see the weaknesses and fix them; he has instead opted to blindly ignore the flaws in our team in the hope that they will magically fix themselves. Consequently, his job is hanging by a thread – defeat at Arsenal next weekend will surely push him over the edge. For his sake and the team’s, let’s hope he can turn things around quickly. 

Manchester United 0-3 Liverpool: United Pay the Penalty

Before the game even started, this was one of the best derbies for Liverpool in a very long time. Unlike so many Old Trafford clashes of old, Liverpool went into this game not only ahead of their rivals, but also as genuine title contenders. To add to the pre-game joy, Chelsea had lost their game the day before, meaning the title race had blown open even wider. The chance was there for Liverpool to close the gap down to just four points (with a game in hand over leaders Chelsea, and City and Chelsea still to come to Anfield), and they took it in style.

Right from the start, Liverpool looked by far the superior team. Rodgers had dropped Coutinho from the starting 11 in place of Sterling, who played alongside Henderson and, crucially, Allen. The effects were easy to see. We had a phenomenal level of midfield control, passing the ball around excellently. It wasn’t just in possession when we were excellent either- we pressed United into mistakes when they were on the ball, never letting them breathe. Suarez and Sturridge combined well (as usual), with Sturridge getting a few decent chances early on. He wasn’t able to take them though- it took a penalty to eventually get the goal we so clearly deserved. It was won by Suarez: he controlled the ball excellently, then took a great touch past Rafael, who’s wild, flailing arm clearly collided with the ball. Having been booked just minutes before he should clearly have been off for this, but in the grand scheme of things Liverpool didn’t have too much to complain about. Gerrard took the penalty excellently, putting it right into the corner.

United reacted very poorly to going behind, failing to muster any sort of threatening response. They lacked creativity going forward, and were generally just sloppy. This was a theme that continued throughout the game- to be frank, they looked very much worthy of the mid-table label that Liverpool fans are gleefully applying to them. They managed to get into the break with the lead still at just 1, but it didn’t last long into the second half. It was another penalty and, like the first one, United could have no argument. Phil Jones clumsily knocked Joe Allen to the ground, leaving referee Mark Clattenburg with an easy decision. Gerrard converted the subsequent penalty with typical coolness, going to the right again and slotting it into the very bottom corner.

In fairness to United, they rallied a little at this point. It was still far from inspiring, but they did at least attempt to launch a couple of attacks on the Liverpool goal. Van Persie had the biggest chance to reduce the deficit to one, but he headed tamely wide from six yards out. Things then went rapidly downhill for them- Sturridge outpaced Vidic, who then rashly lunged in, getting nowhere near the ball. There was little contact, but you simply can’t go in like that, especially not in the box when on a yellow card. He was sent off, and Gerrard had the chance to complete a hat-trick of penalties. He tried to go to his left this time- it sent De Gea the wrong way but it was also slightly inaccurate, and it struck the post.

 It was basically the only foot he put wrong all game; he was excellent. I was very much critical of him after his first couple of games in a deeper role and questioned whether he’d ever be able to adapt, but he has certainly proved me wrong over the second half of the season. He has been immense- his tackling and positioning have improved no end, and he doesn’t always resort to long passes. Though we still need to get a proper defensive midfielder in the summer, it has to be said that the need is a lot less urgent than it seemed to be before Gerrard adapted to the role.

Gerrard should have had the chance to redeem himself for his missed spot kick just minutes later. Apparently conceding three penalties isn’t enough to get United players to catch on to the idea of not fouling players in box; Sturridge had his legs blatantly taken out by Michael Carrick. Clattenburg strangely decided not to give it- maybe he just felt bad for United at this point! Liverpool, on the other hand, were showing no mercy. Suarez flicked the ball excellently over Phil Jones on 82 minutes and then volleyed the ball powerfully at goal, forcing an exquisite save from David De Gea. The respite was only very temporary though- Suarez got clean through on De Gea again after excellently controlling a mis-hit shot from Sturridge and this time managed to beat the Spanish keeper, curling it perfectly over his outstretched leg and into the corner.

Basically all of the team played well, but I think that the midfield three of Allen, Henderson and Sterling deserve special praise. They dominated United all day, passing it amongst themselves and then effortlessly speeding up the play by making incisive runs and passes. All three of them were very willing to press, leading to Liverpool winning the ball back high up the pitch on multiple occasions. The only player who was not quite at his best was Daniel Sturridge- he missed a few good chances, and seemed to have reverted to his old, more selfish style. Hopefully it’s just a blip, and he’s back to his supreme best for the Cardiff game.

To sum up, this victory over our huge rivals was very sweet, made all the more so by the respective positions of us and them. With Chelsea slipping up against Villa and with our form showing no sign of slipping, a real feeling of belief that we can do this is building. Now we just need to keep pumping out victories, and hope that City slip up somewhere along the line!

-James Martin

Follow me on Twitter @JamesMartin013